The Premier League ‘top four’ is dead

Follow a Premier League fixture this season and it won’t be long before you hear a reference to the ‘top four’.

In seasons past, only the clubs finishing in the top-four places in the table were guaranteed a place in the Champions League, UEFA’s blue riband European competition. Until now.

For the first time, five Premier League teams look set to qualify for the Champions League through their league position. And more could join them if they win a UEFA competition but fail to finish in the top five.

So why do pundits keep referencing the old-fashioned ‘top four’? And why does the identity of English football’s top-four clubs remain one of the most popular betting markets?

Here’s why the rules are changing — and why as many as 11 Premier League clubs have a good chance of earning a spot in Europe next season.

How many teams will play in next season’s Champions League?

The structure of the tournament has also been ripped up. From next season, there will no longer be eight groups of four teams. Instead, there will be a 36-team ‘Swiss model’ league, in which each club will play 8 games: four at home, four away. 

The fixtures will be based on seedings and the teams will be ranked from one to 36. The top eight will advance automatically to a 16-team knockout round, and the next 16 teams will go into a play-off round to decide those final eight slots.

How does UEFA decide who gets those extra places?

The two best-performing countries in European competitions this season will each be awarded an extra qualification spot. The collective performance of competing nations will be determined by the total number of points obtained by their clubs the previous year, divided by the number of participating clubs.

Had the change been made at the start of last season, Liverpool (who finished fifth in the Premier League) and Atalanta (who finished fifth in Serie A) would have made it into the Champions League as teams from England and Italy performed best in European competition.

Their premier representatives contested UEFA’s showpiece event in Istanbul, with Manchester City beating Inter Milan to win Europe’s top prize for the first time in their history. Meanwhile, Roma reached the Europa League final where they were defeated by Sevilla. Fiorentina suffered the same fate in the Europa Conference League as they lost to West Ham United.

This means UEFA is ditching its oft-criticised historical coefficients system. That system took into account performances over a five-year period. But the new system is determined on a season-by-season basis.

So, for the Premier League to gain a fifth automatic Champions League spot, English teams will need to perform well in the Europa League and Europa Conference League once again.

The third extra place will go to the team who finishes third in the fifth-best division in UEFA’s national association ranking. Last season, that would have been Marseille as France were fifth, although the Netherlands sit fifth this time around, so that could change.

The final qualification berth will go to one of the title-winning teams outside of the top 10 countries, with the top 10 automatically qualifying for the group stages as usual. Previously, four other domestic champions have made it into the groups through the qualifying path for champions and that will increase to five next season.

Will the Premier League earn a fifth Champions League place?

The chances of England earning an extra Champions League place are high. England have been top of UEFA’s country coefficient rankings for four consecutive seasons and their domestic strength, relative to their European rivals, continues to increase.

There are eight Premier League teams playing in Europe this season. 

Champions League winners Manchester City are joined at the top table by Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle United.

Liverpool’s fifth-place finish earned them Europa League football and they will have high hopes of winning the tournament. The other Europa League spot is earmarked for the FA Cup winners but since Manchester City qualified for the Champions League through their league position, sixth-placed Brighton & Hove Albion have taken it instead.

Manchester United finished third, too, which meant their Europa Conference League spot for winning the Carabao Cup was given to Aston Villa, who ended the 2022-23 campaign in seventh.

The eighth English team to qualify for Europe were West Ham United, who earned themselves access to Pot 1 in the Europa League by winning the Europa Conference League.

Will eight teams playing in Europe help the Premier League’s cause?

Not necessarily, no.

Each win by an English club will be worth less than it has been previously in the coefficient, as the calculation will be divided by eight rather than seven.

And the last time there were eight Premier League sides playing in Europe in 2015-16, England finished third in the coefficient.

But that poor showing was exacerbated by Southampton and West Ham dropping out at the qualifying rounds. This season, all eight teams are in the group stages.

Which other leagues have the most qualifying places?

As UEFA’s four best-performing countries, England, Spain, Italy and Germany get four automatic Champions League group spots.

France and Portugal get two automatic spots and the champions of the Netherlands, Austria, Serbia and Scotland make it into the group stage.

So… how many Premier League teams can qualify for the Champions League?

Never mind the new ‘top five’, we could be talking about the ‘super seven’. That’s how many Premier League teams could theoretically reach the Champions League next season.

But it is very unlikely.

If English teams perform well in Europe, five Premier League teams will qualify for the Champions League based on their league placing.

For two more English teams to join them, they would have to win the Champions League and Europa League respectively, while finishing lower than fifth in the Premier League.

And how many English teams could play in Europe next season?

Technically there could be 11 English teams in European competition next season. That’s more than half the number of teams in the table!

Seven in the Champions League, as explained above. Plus another three in the Europa League, as the Premier League is guaranteed two places, while the winners of the Europa Conference League are also rewarded with a spot in the competition. 

The winner of the Carabao Cup qualifies for the play-off round of the Europa Conference League, which means 11 Premier League teams could theoretically qualify for Europe next season (or 10 Premier League teams and a side from outside the top-flight who manage to win the FA Cup or Carabao Cup, should you wish to get increasingly fantastical).

Confused? If so, here’s how that incredibly confusing table could theoretically look.