The Recipe for 3 Monumental Kentucky Football Upsets
The 2023 schedule is not kind to the Wildcats. The Kentucky football team has the 13th most difficult in the country, according to ESPN’s FPI. Even so, Mark Stoops’ team is projected to be an underdog of a touchdown or more in only three of those games. Can Kentucky turn those preseason deficits into upsets? Let’s dream big, Big Blue Nation.
Kentucky (+17.5) at Georgia, Oct. 7
The SP+ projected spread is about a touchdown off the early line released by FanDuel. Mark Stoops has kept it close against Kirby Smart, covering the spread in four straight meetings, dating back to the de facto SEC East Championship in 2018.
This year the Wildcats have an additional advantage against Georgia: the clock. Stoops and Smart share mutual respect for one another in part because they are so similar. Each coach loves to shrink games and play in the mud with limited possessions. This year it will become much easier to play limited-possession games thanks to a rule change. The clock will no longer stop after first downs. The only exception is inside two minutes.
In a limited-possession game winning the turnover battle is critical. The last time Kentucky won in Athens the Wildcats forced four second half turnovers. It takes a little luck, but if the Cats can capitalize on Georgia mistakes by scoring touchdowns (which they failed to do after a spectacular Josh Allen interception in 2017), the pressure will be on new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo and quarterback Carson Beck to deliver.
Beating the two-time Defending National Champions on the road is a big ask, especially with Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and an entire roster of defensive playmakers returning. Stoops can keep it close. Maybe this fall covering the spread against Georgia finally turns into a win.
Tennessee (-7.5) at Kentucky, Oct. 28
The recipe for this upset is simple: Air it out. Rich Scangarello made the ill-advised decision to run right into the teeth of Tennessee’s run-stopping defense on the first possession last fall at Neyland Stadium. It set the Cats back and they never could recover, despite Tennessee’s troubles in the secondary. With an arsenal of weapons in Lexington, an accurate quarterback and a play-caller that’s been in a shootout with the Vols, this Kentucky team should be able keep up with Tennessee in a track meet.
Even more importantly, this Tennessee Volunteer team is a wild card. The Vols might just stink. All of the chips have been pushed in on Joe Milton, whose accuracy is a well-documented concern. He doesn’t have Jalin Hyatt or Cedric Tillman waiting to bail him out either. By late October Kentucky might be 7-point favorites, not 7-point underdogs.
Alabama (-11.5) at Kentucky, Nov. 11
“We Want Bama” until Alabama shows up on the schedule. Of all the potential Kentucky football upsets, this is the most difficult to forecast.
An Alabama critic could say that Nick Saban is showing some wear and tear. Despite having two of the top three picks in the NFL Draft, the Crimson Tide did not make the CFB Playoff last fall. He lost both coordinators and replaced them with Kevin Steele and Tommy Rees. Neither of those hires strike the fear of God into opponents, particularly the latter, a young play-caller from Notre Dame that must find a new quarterback.
Nevertheless, when people start doubting Nick Saban, it’s usually when he’s at his best. He was on an ESPN set when David Pollack said Georgia has passed Alabama as the premier program in all of college football. You think that sat well with the folks in Tuscaloosa?
One thing that is working in Kentucky’s favor: Alabama hosts LSU the week before traveling to Lexington. That game could decide who wins the SEC West. If a few guys get banged up, Kentucky plays a clean football game and Devin Leary goes nuts, I’m telling you there’s a chance.
