The Verdict: Melbourne Cup

racing.com

05 November 2023

Racing.com's Harry White explains why your horse can or can't win the Melbourne Cup

RACE 7- MELBOURNE CUP 3200M

1. GOLD TRIP $5 (Ladbrokes fixed win odds at time of publishing)

Why he can win: He won last year's edition of this race and you could argue he is going even better this time leading up to the race.

Why he can’t win: He carries 58.5kg, one kilo more than last year and a weight that statistically proves hard to carry and win this race. Mark Zahra jumping off to ride another horse is a negative too (though JMac is certainly a good replacement)..

2. ALENQUER $67

Why he can win: He has improved with each run this campaign, the latter racing in limited room so you can add merit to the run.

Why he can’t win: He is unknown at two miles and now faces a stiffer contest to what he has been up against, so will need to improve further.

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT $6.50

Why he can win: There was plenty to like about his Caulfield Cup win, Mark Zahra has opted to stick with him and he always holds form third up (3:2-0-1).

Why he can’t win: Where he gets to in the run from a tricky barrier could be the key.

4. BREAKUP $19

Why he can win: His first-up run was a pass mark and he looks much better-suited with fitness over this sort of trip.

Why he can’t win: He was well-beaten last start in a race containing key rivals, so will need to have significantly improved.

5. VAUBAN $3.40

Why he can win: His overseas form reads quite impressively and his recent track work throughout last week looked very sharp to the eye. The low draw suits.

Why he can’t win: He hasn't had a first-up run in Australia leading into this, and while in recent times that isn't the be all and end all, history says it can prove advantageous to do so.

6. SOULCOMBE $10

Why he can win: His late work in the Caulfield Cup was good and he should relish the rise to the two miles at this point of the prep.

Why he can’t win: His tendency to miss the start by at least a length or two puts him on the back foot from the get go.

7. ABSURDE $19

Why he can win: He was last seen winning an Ebor, which can be a handy form reference for this, gets Zac Purton on and won't know himself carrying just 53kg.

Why he can’t win: He has 7.5L to make up on Vauban from when the pair last met over in Ascot.

8. RIGHT YOU ARE $61

Why he can win: There was merit in him sticking on from on speed in the Caulfield Cup and he is hard-fit at this point of the prep.

Why he can’t win: He has lengths to make up on key rivals which is even more of a query over this longer, more trying journey.

9. VOW AND DECLARE $26

Why he can win: He is seemingly winding back the clock and racing as well as ever and will appreciate the drop in weight from last start.

Why he can’t win: Sticky barrier draw and he's not getting any younger and will need to improve off recent runs to get close to others firmer in betting.

10. CLEVELAND $31

Why he can win: He is coming off a last start win.

Why he can’t win: The wide barrier certainly does him no favours and he might simply lack the class to be winning in this field.

11. ASHRUN $41

Why he can win: He has improved with each run this time in on the back of a very lengthy spell and should be ready to peak for this.

Why he can’t win: Where he gets to in the run could be the key.

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR $91

Why he can win: He is hard-fit and there might be some sort of intent to settle slightly closer than his usual racing pattern.

Why he can’t win: It has been 600+ days since his last win.

13. OKITA SOUSHI $91

Why he can win: He can only really improve on his first-up run in the Caulfield Cup and should be better suited over this trip.

Why he can’t win: He needs to turn the tables on key rivals and has no market expectation to do so.

14. SHERAZ $126

Why he can win: He ran an improved race last start and might be able to improve again off that.

Why he can’t win: He isn't going well enough to prove competitive here.

15. LASTOTCHKA $26

Why she can win: The form through her overseas Group 3 win has stacked up well since, so she profiles like the right type of horse for this race.

Why she can’t win: She is only a little mare who has drawn wide and the plan is to send her forward, so she may feel the pinch at the back end of the race.

16. MAGICAL LAGOON $151

Why she can win: She has improved with each run this time in and looks ready for another rise in distance.

Why she can’t win: She needs to find many lengths to prove competitive.

17. MILITARY MISSION $35

Why he can win: He has had a good grounding leading into the race, most recently having trialled between runs after a Herbert Power win.

Why he can’t win: Others may be stronger at the back end of two miles.

18. SERPENTINE $61

Why he can win: He is hard-fit and likely to utilise the inside draw to be prominent in the run. Big weight drop ideal.

Why he can’t win: There is more depth and pressure here so he will need to improve.

19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE $151

Why he can win: He is hard-fit and drops in weight.

Why he can’t win: Outclassed.