The Armchair Punter's guide to the 2023 Melbourne Cup
In an intriguing betting contest, headlined by favoured Irish raider Vauban, Tuesday's Melbourne Cup is set to be a classic.
Vauban is under siege in betting from reigning Melbourne Cup champion Gold Trip and last month's Caulfield Cup winner, Without A Fight.
1 – GOLD TRIP (FR)
58.5kg 7YO (H)
Starts: 27-3-5-5
Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 2
He's flying this bloke and arguably racing better than when he won the race last year. Jockey a tick, trainers a tick but barrier could have been better for his racing style and has a big weight.
VERDICT: Can win so dismiss him at your peril.
2 – ALENQUER (FR)
56.5kg 6YO (G)
Starts: 18-5-2-1
Trainers: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Barrier: 9
Ridden by the great one Damien Oliver and has been running into some reasonable form however a setback with a stone bruise hasn't helped although if he gets to the start he'll be the romance story.
VERDICT: Can't win.
3 – WITHOUT A FIGHT (IRE)
56.5kg 7YO (G)
Starts: 22-10-3-4
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Barrier: 16
Caulfield Cup winner with a great lineage through the Cup multiple winning Freedman's. This bloke is in career best form and his Caulfield Cup win was ultra impressive. Last year's Cup winning hoop adds to his chances.
VERDICT: Can definitely win.
4 – BREAKUP (JPN)
55kg 6YO (G)
Starts: 22-5-3-4
Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka
Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama
Barrier: 18
Always beware of the Japanese raiders as they are stars. This bloke had a nice clean-out in the Caulfield Cup when not far out of the placings and he's right at his peak and second-up form is his best. Query on the jockey though.
VERDICT: Can win, with a jockey disclaimer.
5 – VAUBAN (FR)
55kg 6YO (G)
Starts: 14-7-3-1
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Barrier: 3
Strong stayer with an impressive turn of foot and hits our shores with big wraps on him. He bolted in at Royal Ascot by 7½ lengths but that was easier than this. Has a master trainer and his jockey is arguably the best in the world.
VERDICT: Can certainly win.
6 – SOULCOMBE (GB)
53.5kg 5YO (G)
Starts: 15-5-1-1
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Barrier: 4
Has a few tricks this bloke in that he misses the star and slow out by six lengths in the Caulfield Cup but still good effort seventh. His jockey is a star and won 10 races over two days in Tokyo on the weekend. If he jumps OK he's right in it.
VERDICT: Can win and banking on him getting away reasonably.
7 – ABSURDE (FR)
53kg 6YO (G)
Starts: 15-4-6-2
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Zac Purton
Barrier: 8
His stablemate Vauban is favourite but this bloke has some serious form recommendations and won the Ebor at York last time. Gets Zac Purton steering and has a good overall record.
VERDICT: Going to pass on the win but consider for a place.
8 – RIGHT YOU ARE
53kg 7YO (G)
Starts: 26-10-4-4
Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr
Jockey: John Allen
Barrier: 15
Raced well at the end of last year winning a stack of races but this time in training he's been thereabouts without finishing top of the podium. Caulfield Cup run was solid but still this is another level.
VERDICT: Rough place chance.
9 – VOW AND DECLARE
53kg 8YO (G)
Starts: 37-5-7-4
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Jockey: Billy Egan
Barrier: 19
Fourth Melbourne Cup for Vow And Declare and he won in 2019. His form in recent starts has been solid with a couple of second placings and there no reason why he can't sneak into the lesser placings.
VERDICT: Doubt he can win but could place.
10 – CLEVELAND (IRE)
** SCRATCHED **
11 – ASHRUN (FR)
51.5kg 8YO (G)
Starts: 17-4-3-1
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Weight: 51.5kg
Barrier: 11
Great story if he was to win having the best part of three years off but his recent form has shown he's back. Finished midfield in the 2020 Cup after being slowly away from a wide barrier (23).
VERDICT: Going to pass on the win but another who could fill a lesser slot.
12 – DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (NZ)
51.5kg 6YO (G)
Starts: 27-7-1-2
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Barrier: 12
This is one who does love the distance having had three 3200m starts for a Adelaide Cup win, third in the Sydney Cup and a strong finishing sixth in last year‘s Flemington marathon but questioning his class against some of these.
VERDICT: No for the win, possibly for a minor placing
13 – OKITA SOUSHI (IRE)
51.5kg 6YO (H)
Starts: 13-4-2-3
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: Dylan Gibbons
Barrier: 20
Irish raider who finished 12th in the Caulfield Cup but he can improve and we must remember he's prepared by two-time Cup winner Joseph O'Brien. Still he needs to go to another level and the barrier doesn't help.
VERDICT: No, just doesn't have the A-grade form.
14 – SHERAZ (FR)
51.5kg 7YO (G)
Starts: 23-4-5-2
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Barrier: 22
Wide barrier certainly doesn't help his cause and apart from that impediment his form simply isn't good enough. Would the moon and stars to align and can't see that happening. Only plus a second in the Sydney Cup last year.
VERDICT: Not for mine.
15 – LASTOTCHKA (FR)
51kg 5YO (M)
Starts: 12-4-2-1
Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr
Jockey: Craig Williams
Barrier: 21
Least experienced horse in the race with only 12 starts but putting together a nice record and was strong racing on the speed winning at 3100m two months back.
VERDICT: Place would appear her lot.
16 – MAGICAL LAGOON (IRE)
51kg 5YO (M)
Starts: 13-3-1-0
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Barrier: 7
Hasn't done much since coming from Europe and while her last run was better when beaten only a length in the Geelong Cup she'll need to improve significantly this time to finish in the first half of the field.
VERDICT: She's a no and leaving her out of everything.
17 – MILITARY MISSION (IRE)
51kg 6YO (G)
Starts: 27-7-5-3
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Rachel King
Barrier: 5
He's racing well and strong through the line winning the Herbert Power last start. Never raced at the 3200m but has Gai Waterhouse in his corner and Rachel King is riding up a storm.
VERDICT: Not without a place chance.
18 – SERPENTINE
51kg 7YO (G)
Starts: 21-3-3-1
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Barrier: 1
Won the Epsom Derby as a three-year-old but only won the one race since. Ran third in The Bart Cummings last start and has Gai Waterhouse next to his name plus 2020 Cup winning jockey Jye McNeil.
VERDICT: Inside gate helps but lacks the class of those up top.
19 – VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
51kg 4YO (H)
Starts: 13-2-2-1
Trainer: Liam Howley
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Barrier: 6
His best hopes would come if the track was rain affected. Had that ground when second in the Australian Derby but his recent has been patchy at best and hard to see him troubling the scorer.
VERDICT: Just a simple no.
20 – MORE FELONS (IRE)
50.5kg 5YO (G)
Starts: 14-4-2-0
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Barrier: 24
Solid effort behind Absurde in the Ebor at York and first local start charged home for close fifth in the Geelong Cup. The outside barrier doesn't help but if Jamie Kah can get it right he's some chance at odds.
VERDICT: Yes he's a rough winning hope but more likely a place.
21 – FUTURE HISTORY
50kg 6YO (G)
Starts: 16-6-4-1
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Barrier: 13
Improving galloper and not without a chance after tough win in The Bart Cummings followed by a solid third in the Moonee Valley Cup when he had to make a wide run. Nothing on his back and no dramas with his overseas jockey.
VERDICT: Probably not a winner but could be placed.
22 – INTERPRETATION (IRE)
50kg 6Yo (G)
Starts: 16-4-1-2
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Teo Nugent
Barrier: 17
Got into the race by the barest of margins winning the Bendigo Cup. he was pulled up in the Cup last year after racing handy and realistically what he's done since looks a grade below what's needed.
VERDICT: Betting away from him.
23 – KALAPOUR (IRE)
50kg 7YO (G)
Starts: 19-5-3-41
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Zac Lloyd (a)
Barrier: 14
Led throughout to win the Archer Stakes on Saturday after racing consistently in Sydney prior to that. He's honest and always puts in plus his only start at Flemington was a win but doubt his credentials at 3200m.
VERDICT: Looking elsewhere for the winner.
24 – TRUE MARVEL (FR)
50kg 8YO (G)
Starts: 18-5-2-1
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Jockey: Ben Thompson
Barrier: 10
Most experienced horse in the race as a veteran of 53 starts and did run second in the Sydney Cup as a $151 chance earlier in the year. Still his form is hardly up to the standard required.
VERDICT: Will run the distance but not fast enough.
