Thunder vs Jazz Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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18 January 2024

Thunder vs Jazz Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Despite winning nine of their last 10 games, the Utah Jazz still have a long way to go to catch OKC in the standings. Can they make up some ground tonight in a very favorable schedule spot? Our NBA betting picks believe so.

We get treated to a thrilling Western Conference showdown on Thursday night in Salt Lake City when the Utah Jazz host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder have been one of the best stories in the NBA this season. They own the West’s second-best record and are led by NBA MVP odds candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are just the hottest team in the NBA. They have won 12 of their last 14 games straight up and against the spread, including the last six in a row overall.

Despite this, the NBA odds like OKC’s chances of halting Utah’s hot streak, setting the Thunder as slight road favorites. Does that mean the Jazz have betting value as underdogs tonight?

I break down this Northwest Division matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Jazz.

Thunder vs Jazz odds

Thunder vs Jazz predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder are legit. They are a young, athletic core that plays great defense and is well-coached. They are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who currently has the third-best odds to win the NBA MVP Award. Their 27-13 record is no fluke.

That doesn’t mean the Thunder can’t have rough patches. OKC comes into this game 4-4 SU in its last eight games overall, which includes back-to-back losses in Los Angeles to the Lakers and Clippers in their last two.

The blame for this mini stumble can be focused on the defense. For the season, OKC ranks sixth in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating, but over this eight-game stretch that ranking drops to 16th, and are surrendering 116.3 points per game.

The Thunder will have to be at their best at that end of the floor if they hope to slow down this suddenly juggernaut version of the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz are a remarkable 12-2 SU/ATS in their last 14 games overall. And it’s not like their schedule has been soft with recent wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, Bucks, and 76ers. Utah is led by All-Star Lauri Markkanen, but this run started when they inserted Kris Dunn into the starting lineup. You can tell this improved the Jazz’s overall depth.

As a result, the Jazz rank fifth in the Association in offensive rating and 10th in effective field goal percentage over that stretch. While that is impressive, it’s Utah’s improvement on defense that stands out. The Jazz rank eighth in defensive rating and fifth in opponent field goal percentage during this 14-game run.

The Jazz are playing extremely well. The Thunder have taken a bit of a step back recently and will be playing their third game in four nights. This means that the Jazz, who haven’t played since Monday, will have quite the rest advantage as well. Oh, and they are at home, catching points. See what I’m getting at here? Take the points with the underdog tonight.

My best bet: Jazz +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Thunder vs Jazz same-game parlay

Jazz +3.5

Walker Kessler Over 5.5 rebounds

Kris Dunn Over 4.5 points

In addition to our Jazz +3.5 best bet, I believe the Jazz should have an edge on the glass.

Despite being very athletic, the Thunder aren’t an overly big team in a traditional sense and it costs them a bit on the glass. OKC actually has the third-worst rebounding rate in the league. So, I’m looking at Walker Kessler’s rebounding prop for the second leg of this SGP.

Despite the fact Kessler has been moved to the bench, he is still playing meaningful minutes and is still averaging 7.1 rebounds per game as a reserve. So, we’ll happily add Kessler to go Over 5.5 rebounds in this matchup.

We talked about Kris Dunn impacting this team since joining the starting lineup. While his impact is mostly spacing, playmaking, and defense, he still does a little scoring. Dunn is averaging 5.1 points per as a starter game during this 14-game stretch. His point prop is sitting at 4.5 for this one. Dunn has gone Over that in four of his last five games.

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Thunder vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis

The Jazz opened this matchup as 3-point home underdogs and they have bounced back and forth between that and the current +3.5 for most of the day. I broke down why I’m taking Utah as underdogs here, but it doesn’t hurt that they have won seven of their last eight games straight up when getting points. While the Thunder are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight games.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at a high of 246.5 but the early money has come in on the Under, moving the number down to 244. The Jazz have been an underrated Under team during this run, going 6-8 O/U thanks to their improved defense. Meanwhile, the Thunder have been one of the better Over teams all season going 24-16 O/U.

Both teams also play at a high tempo both ranking in the Top 10 in pace, but this number is high enough for me to stay away.