Thunder vs. Pelicans odds, predictions, picks: How to bet Wednesday’s Western Conference play-in game
It’s not often that you can say an NBA team that finished two games under .500 greatly overachieved. Yet that’s absolutely the case with the 2022-23 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Projected for as few as 22.5 victories in some NBA futures markets, the Thunder rolled — yes, rolled — to a 40-42 record.
Now all Oklahoma City has to do to end a two-year playoff drought is pull off two more road upsets in the NBA’s play-in tournament.
The quest begins Wednesday in New Orleans against the Pelicans, who finished two games ahead of the Thunder in the Western Conference after once again playing most of the season without oft-injured star forward Zion Williamson.
Williamson won’t be on the court Wednesday, but that didn’t stop oddsmakers from installing New Orleans as a significant home favorite. Nor is it stopping us from backing that home favorite.
Because while Williamson is down, another Pelicans star forward is healthy. And we expect him to dominate.
Odds updated as of 12:45 p.m. ET on April 11.
Thunder vs. Pelicans Prediction
Pelicans -5.5 (at Caesars Sportsbook)
Thunder vs. Pelicans Prediction: Analysis
Oklahoma City is to be commended for outkicking the coverage this season, especially after losing prized rookie Chet Holmgren to a season-ending injury during NBA Summer League.
But what New Orleans pulled off during the regular season also was nothing short of impressive.
The Pelicans went 42-40 despite Williamson (29 games) and veteran forward Brandon Ingram (45) being limited to 74 of a potential 164 games.
The Zion thing, of course, was to be expected — he’s as brittle as he is physically gifted. (The fact he hasn’t played in three months because of a hamstring injury says it all.)
Ingram also hasn’t been the poster child for health over the years. Since playing 79 games in his rookie season with the Lakers in 2016-17, he’s sat out 20-plus games five times in six years.
But after missing exactly two months early this season with a severe toe bruise, then a few games last month with a sprained ankle, Ingram is finally injury-free. He showed as much down the stretch when he averaged 29.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists during a season-closing 12-game stretch.
That includes Sunday’s monster performance in Minnesota, where Ingram had 41 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists. Unfortunately for New Orleans, it failed to take advantage of Ingram’s heroics, losing 113-108.
That defeat left the Pelicans in a tie for eighth with the Timberwolves in the Western Conference. However, Minnesota won the tiebreaker, thus earning the double play-in opportunity and forcing New Orleans into elimination-game territory.
Despite Sunday’s disappointing outcome, the Pelicans still closed on a 9-3 SU run (8-3-1 ATS) — thanks mostly to Ingram. That includes winning five of six home games, with three of those victories coming against playoff teams (Knicks, Grizzlies and Clippers).
New Orleans went 4-0-1 ATS in the five home wins, prevailing by margins of 8, 7 (in overtime), 8, 19 and 35 points.
Conversely, the Thunder petered out in the final two weeks of the regular season. After an 8-2 surge from March 3-21, Oklahoma City dropped six of eight on the court while going 0-8 ATS.
That latter number is noteworthy, because prior to that eight-game ATS funk, the Thunder had the NBA’s best point spread record. They finished with the third-best mark at 46-35-1 ATS.
OKC did rebound to win its final two games, but one was against Utah and the other was Sunday’s 115-100 blowout of Memphis in a meaningless finale for both teams.
What about the fact that the Thunder went to the Big Easy exactly a month ago and throttled the Pelicans 110-96? Ingram missed that game with his ankle sprain, which is why OKC was just a half-point underdog.
Ingram also didn’t play in his team’s first two matchups with the Thunder. Yet New Orleans won both: 105-101 at home (Nov. 28) and 128-125 in overtime on the road (Dec. 23) — even though OKC All-Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went off for 31 and 44 points in each contest.
Ingram was on the court when the Pelicans returned to Oklahoma on Feb. 13, and he poured in 34 points in a 103-100 win as a 3-point underdog.
Now, as the scores of this year’s four meetings clearly show, New Orleans didn’t defeat the Thunder by more than four points all season. Which it will have to do this time to cover Wednesday’s point spread.
Again, though, Ingram missed three of those four clashes (and the Pelicans still won two of them). And in the one game Ingram did play, he dominated and New Orleans scored a road upset.
So as long as Ingram can stay upright (and out of foul trouble) Wednesday night — and as long as OKC’s Alexander doesn’t have the game of his life — the Pelicans should take care of business at home.
And they should do so comfortably.
Point spread: Thunder (+5.5) @ Pelicans (-5.5)
Moneyline: Thunder (+185) @ Pelicans (-225)
Total: 228 points
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