Thursday Night Football best bets: Dolphins at Bengals

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season kicks off with Dolphins-Bengals on Thursday night. VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game.

The Bengals opened as 3-point home favorites and moved to -4.5 on Wednesday night. The Dolphins buyback Wednesday evening brought the line down to 3.

Currently 65% of bets at DraftKings are taking Dolphins plus the points. I'll lay the bets with Bengals. The Bengals enjoy rare buy-low value as a contrarian home favorite with reverse line movement in a primetime game.

The Dolphins are one of two undefeated teams left. They are visiting the Bengals on Thursday night. The advance line on this game was Bengals -2. It fell from -4 to -3.5 late Wednesday. There were reports that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa might have suffered a concussion in Sunday's win over the Bills. He's going to play.

Cincinnati's offensive line is not opening holes for Joe Mixon. The Dolphins have allowed five yards per carry but have also faced mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. With the Bengals' wide receiver weapons, Zac Taylor doesn't have a lot of incentive to run the ball unless his team has a late lead.

The Dolphins' defense is ranked 27th in DVOA and 24th overall. Joe Mixon is averaging 34.3 receiving yards on 6.7 targets per game this season. He has eclipsed 18.5 receiving yard in two out of three games. The Dolphins are allowing opposing running backs 6,7 receptions for 52 receivingyards per games, and last week they let three Bills get over that mark.