Thursday Night Football: Colts-Broncos betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

Colts-Broncos is a Thursday Night Football game. PFF Greenline leans toward the over. Michael Pittman has 7.3 aDOT.

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The Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos are playing on Thursday Night Football. PFF's betting tools use top-down machine learning models backed by Pff’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market.

Denver and Indianapolis are playing each other on Thursday night. The game is a toss-up. PFF Greenline is leaning toward the over. The over has been a mixed start to the season for primetime overs. It's been the worst spot for units won from a units perspective. Indianapolis is favored by 3.5 points. Denver is favoured by -3.

Player props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. Unders are by far the most profitable angle to bet. The 2022 season started off as expected, with rushing yards and receptions finishing heavily toward the under. Team's seem to be shifting their run/pass splits, resulting in higher attempts but also negative outcomes.

Colts WR Alec Pierce is getting only 10.9% target share among 52.4% of dropbacks. Pierce's routes are trending down from a high in Week 1 to only 40.5% routes run last week. He's not being looked at consistently enough to justify a reception price at a plus offering.

Michael Pittman Jr. has been the clear cut No. 1 in this passing offense. He has a low target percentage of 23.3%, but he has also been operating underneath for this offense with Pierce working over the top. 76.7% of his targets have been first read throws.

Jonathan Taylor is out for the game. Nyheim Hines will play a lot of snaps in the backfield. Pittman will have less competition for underneath targets.

The Colts are expected to play from behind Thursday night. Matt Ryan's pass attempts will increase. Alec Pierce's catch prop has negative correlation to Michael Pittman's reception prop. PFF’s play-by-play simulation results in this outcome just shy of 15% of the time.

Ben went 2-3 in his Week 4 MNF preview. Ben's overall season record is 24-31. PFF's newest play-by-play simulation uses a bottoms-up prediction approach backed on Pff data and state-of-the-art machine learning models.