Morning Coffee: A Pair Of FanDuel Best Bets For Thursday Night Football

The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts both traded for veteran quarterbacks that they felt could lead them to a Super Bowl this season.

It’s still early, but at this point it’s safe to say that the results to date have been extremely underwhelming.

Russell Wilson and the Broncos are .500 entering Week 5, but Wilson ranks 22nd in the league in Total QBR and Denver ranks 29th in NFL in points per game. 

Now they’ll be without running back Javonte Williams for the rest of the year after he suffered a brutal season-ending injury.

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan’s 41.3 QBR is his worst QBR through his team’s first four games of a season in his career and a big part of the reason why Indianapolis has started the season 1-3.

It isn’t about to get much easier for Ryan and the Colts as they make the trip to Colorado without star running back Jonathan Taylor in the line-up.

Denver was a 2.5-point favourite for tonight’s game on the look-ahead line at FanDuel last week.

The Broncos opened -3 this week.

That spread continued to move to -3.5 on Wednesday after it was confirmed that Taylor will not be available for Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football.

So, what can we expect to see tonight in terms of a FanDuel Best Bet?

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Thursday October 6th, 2022.

FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night Football

Staring down a match-up that features two quarterbacks that rank in the bottom-third of the NFL in terms of Total QBR, pass TD percentage and points per game, it’s fair to wonder where the points are going to come from tonight.

Wilson has averaged 245.0 passing yards with four touchdown passes and one interception through his first four games for Denver.

Only two NFL teams have a lower average points per game than the Broncos at 16.5 entering Week 5.

Those two teams are the Chicago Bears and – you guessed it - the Colts.

Yes, Indianapolis has scored the fewest points in the NFL this season with an average of just 14.3 per game. 

They have failed to score more than 20 points in any game this season.

For as awkward as Wilson has looked at times in Denver early on, it’s nothing compared to how Ryan has fared for Indianapolis.

The veteran QB has thrown as many interceptions as touchdown passes throughout the first four weeks.

Now the pressure will ramp up even more with Indianapolis staring down a 1-4 start, on the road, in a hostile environment, with their best player sidelined in Taylor.

The Broncos and Colts have gone a combined 7-1 to the under in their games, with Indianapolis currently at 4-0 to the under so far this season.

Meanwhile, prime time game totals have trended towards the under through the first four weeks.

The under is 9-4 in prime time games so far this season.

While we’ve seen the total dip from 43.5 to 42.5, my guess is that move won’t keep anybody who loves the under from betting it tonight.  

As far as my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football goes, I’m staring down a couple of player props that I like for tonight’s game.

While Ryan hasn’t done anything special through his first four games in Indianapolis by any means, he has thrown for 350+ passing yards in two of his first four games.

In the two games he didn’t throw for 350+ yards, he was sacked five times.

Randy Gregory’s injury will be a positive for the Colts’ pass protection tonight, and while I could see them working in Nyheim Hines and Phillip Lindsay in the passing game, I think they lean on some of their depth receivers to deliver the way they have over the past couple of weeks.

Only Michael Pittman Jr. has more receiving yards for Indianapolis through four weeks than fourth-year receiver Ashton Dulin, who is up to 11 receptions for 150 yards on 17 targets.

Dulin is averaging 13.6 yards per catch this season.

He’s got two catches of 20+ yards.

FanDuel set Dulin’s over/under at 12.5 receiving yards.

Meanwhile, fellow Colts’ receiver Parris Campbell has the worst target rate per route in the NFL this season. 

The 2019 second round pick has averaged just 3.0 targets per game this season, but with Taylor out and Patrick Surtain II covering Pittman, I think Ryan will look Campbell’s way more often in tonight’s game.

Last week, Campbell recorded four catches for 43 yards on four targets.

FanDuel set Campbell’s over/under at 20.5 receiving yards.

I’ll take Campbell over 20.5 receiving yards and Dulin over 12.5 receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.