Timefigure analysis from Graham North on Gerri Colombe and other big weekend winners

No shortage of races to cover this week with finally plenty of decent quality fare over jumps (at least where the obstacles were jumped) so straight into the best of the action which began at Warwick last Tuesday when 2023 Martin Pipe winner Iroko made a winning start over fences in a novice event which had been won the previous season by subsequent Turners winner Stage Star.

Iroko’s win didn’t pull up any trees on the clock – his timefigure was a lowly 105 and he covered the two-and-a-half miles nearly three and a half seconds slower than the winner of the novice handicap chase Pepe Le Moko - but he travelled strongly and went readily clear of French recruit Golden Son, who it has to be said had been swatted aside easily by no more than a useful sort when second on his only previous start over fences at Auteuil 19 months previously.

That line of form, fitness doubts about the runner-up and the slow times Iroko ran - he also came home slower from three out than Pepe Le Moko albeit not asked any sort of question – all combine to make me think however stylishly he won he likely didn’t have a great deal to beat on the day. Still, it was a promising start ahead of stiffer tasks ahead.

Two days later Allaho, who in recent years has been Timeform’s highest-rated chaser and was coming off an enforced break that had kept him off the course since April 2022, and his smart stable-companion Allegorie de Vassy, second in the Mrs Paddy Power at the Cheltenham Festival, starred on a Clonmel card that began on heavy ground and eased further as showers fell through the afternoon.

The Clonmel Oil attracted just three runners and was one of a trio of races run over the extended two-and-a-half miles. In all honesty, it was something of a non-event (134 timefigure) with neither of his rivals seemingly willing to engage in meaningful combat and his winning time ended up over three seconds slower than Allegorie de Vassy’s and was also unflattering in comparison with that posted by the Timeform 100-rated handicapper Evies Vladimir in the other chase on the card.

Allaho’s final circuit time (last fence jumped before the winning post on the penultimate circuit to the finishing line next time round) was marginally the slowest of the three and he also ran the distance from the third last eight seconds slower than Allegorie de Vassy and two and a half seconds slower than Evies Vladimir in a plodding finish.

Whether we ever get to see the old Allaho again (in the King George at Kempton, hopefully) remains to be seen but Allegorie de Vassy ran up to her best on time (139) in the listed mares race overturning form with stable-companion Instit who had beaten her twice under faster conditions in the spring. Her jumping is no more polished on this evidence, however, and she looks vulnerable to me to an up-and-coming mare.

Over at Newbury, Nicky Henderson introduced a smart prospect in the shape of Willmount in the two-mile novice hurdle, a race he has won in recent years with Dusart who went on to be placed in a Grade One over the smaller obstacles and Claimantakinforgan, who later landed a Grade Two.

Unbeaten in a point and then two bumpers for Neil Mulholland, Willmount might have been the slowest of the three winners on the card over the two mile trip (translating into an ordinary 97 timefigure) but he ran the distance from the third last hurdle to the finishing line nearly ten seconds faster than Brentford Hope who made a mockery of his 122 BHA mark in the opener as well as over six seconds faster than wide-margin eased-down winner Manimole.

On top of that he was also between three and four seconds faster from the last despite not being asked any sort of question. That late burst suggests to me his timefigure could be upgraded to 139 or thereabouts and, an exuberant sort by the same sire as Constitution Hill, he’s surely best kept to the minimum trip for now.

Exeter staged the Haldon Gold Cup on Friday but there was arguably more interest in the earlier novice chase which saw the fencing debut of Albert Bartlett winner Stay Away Fay.

Without being hassled for the lead as he was at Chepstow on his reappearance, Elixir de Nutz had the run of things up front in the Gold Cup and didn’t even need to run to his best to land a big prize (timefigure 139) but he was well held off a mark one pound higher in the Grand Annual last year and, rising ten and up 5lb to 151 on the back of this, he’ll do very well to win again this season without fitness advantage he had in this.

Stay Away Fay found himself in a very different scenario to the strongly run Albert Bartlett but ultimately proved too good for a couple of opponents who weren’t quite at his level over hurdles. A 114 timefigure confirms the race wasn’t a proper test at the trip, and his response wasn’t immediate after being niggled along entering the straight, but he absolutely flew the last and came home from that fence well over two seconds faster than Elixir de Nutz despite the short run-in.

All in all, taking his sectional time from three fences out into consideration, I’d pitch his overall time performance at around 144 and he’s sure to be winning again.

The same afternoon Down Royal kicked off its two-day meeting held over from the previous week by flooding.

As some smart Alec quipped on the Betfair forum over the weekend if you don’t know by now that Gordon Elliott targets this meeting every year then you’re in the wrong game but even his staunchest followers surely wouldn’t have envisaged him winning a remarkable 11 races across the two days, meaning he has now sent out 59 winners at the fixture since 2015 and only once in that period has he gone home with fewer than five in the bag.

That suggests to me that rather than Elliott suddenly having a higher quality string than usual his horses are more forward right now than most other yards, some of whom don’t seem much enthused by the fixture these days (Willie Mullins wasn’t represented in 2012, ran only two this year and hasn’t had a winner there since 2019). So expecting Elliott to continue in this vein is unrealistic.

His feature winners on the opening day were Brighterdaysahead and Irish Point in the Grade Three hurdles.

The former is bred to be smart being a half-sister to Mighty Potter and French Dynamite and she maintained her unbeaten record as well as place at the head of the betting for the Dawn Run at Cheltenham with a ready defeat of a decent field in a good 136 timefigure despite tending to hurdle out to her left.

Her winning time was three seconds faster than Irish Point managed in getting the better of Dawn Run runner-up Magical Zoe despite him having three less hurdles to jump on account of the low sun. Allowed his own way in front, he never looked likely to be caught and a 129 timefigure is much lower than he’s capable of, having run a 148 in the Royal Bond last year.

Gerri Colombe yet to have his optimum conditions

Elliott had five winners on Saturday including his potential stable star Gerri Colombe who took the Grade One Ladbrokes Champion Chase in exciting fashion.

The seven-year-old rose to the top of the staying novice chasing ranks last season without ever really getting what will prove his ideal conditions, and I very much doubt the ground at Down Royal was ideal for him either.

The figures might not say it but considering he was conceding race fitness to each of the other three runners, including the defending champion and speedier Envoi Allen who was given a belter of a ride by Rachael Blackmore that nearly saw him steal the prize again, Gerri Colombe must I imagine have come on a fair bit since last season to run down Envoi Allen on such a sharp track late on at the end of a race that wasn’t truly run.

A 142 overall timefigure isn’t at all bad in the circumstances and he came home faster from three out, two out and the last than the Timeform 157-rated Ash Tree Meadow managed over half a mile shorter in the following chase.

Proper soft ground at Cheltenham on the New Course in March over an extra quarter mile will be right up his street.

The same afternoon Gowran staged an interesting card that featured several horses who will surely be contesting Graded races very soon if not next time out.

The best timefigure of the day over hurdles was posted by Willie Mullins’ Ile Atlantique who carded a 132 in the maiden hurdle. Beckett Road (120 timefigure) actually ran the two-mile trip faster earlier in the day but the ground had deteriorated by the time Ile Atlantique lined up and the fact he could keep on so stoutly at the end of a punishingly-run race (his time from the third-last hurdle was over three seconds slower than Beckett Road) suggests to me he’s probably the one to take from the meeting.

Harmonya Maker was another winner for Elliott as she got off to a winning start over fences at the expense of Brandy Love in a 127 timefigure but the latter was allowed to drop a fair way off her before being rushed into the race after the second last only to fade up the hill. I’d be wary of taking this form at face value.

The less said the better about Aintree’s Saturday card which fell foul of all-day low sun but there were no such problems at Wincanton where Paul Nicholls had a four-timer.

I hadn’t been bowled over by Knappers Hill on his chasing debut at Chepstow and though he jumped better on this occasion, time comparisons whether they be overall time (135 timefigure), final circuit time or time from three fences out suggest there wasn’t much between him on the day and his stable-companion Huelgoat who won the handicap over the same distance off a BHA mark of just 121 (since raised to 129).

With Lady Adare seeming to show a fair bit of improvement in second, Knappers Hill still has a fair way to go for me.

Rubaud won the feature hurdle in a 139 timefigure, a small improvement on his previous best, but well short of the level he’ll need to run to at the top level.

The feature hurdle at Naas on Sunday went to Espanito Bello who is usually seen running off much higher marks over fences but the opening maiden went to a good prospect in Slade Steel who proved too strong for King Of Kingsfield (went long odds on in running once again) in a decent 129 timefigure but the race if anything provided a boost for the highly-touted Ballyburn who burnt Slade Steel off with ease when last seen in bumpers.

Sir Gerhard’s untidy departure two out over fences will probably ensure he’s back over hurdles next time but he’d have had to improve a fair chunk anyway to have got the better of his improving stable-companion Dinoblue whose 142 timefigure was a career best.

Rather controversially the fences in the home straight were omitted in an interesting beginners chase that went to Grangeclare West in a 127 timefigure.

He’s been rather hit and miss so far and had the advantage of a prominent position here, so whether he'll progress as much as might seem likely remains to be seen. Column favourite Corbetts Cross was again too keen for his own good since being dropped back to short of two miles by these connections but ran satisfactorily in third.