To The Summit: RSL's Path To The 2023 MLS Playoffs Part 2

As quickly as the fall leaves changed across the Wasatch National Forest last weekend, so did Real Salt Lake’s postseason fortunes. 

That’s what happens when you go to Los Angeles in early October and beat LAFC, against all perceptible odds. 

Instead of having to climb a mountain during the Club’s last four matches to reach the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, RSL’s win in LA plopped the team on an express ski-lift to the summit. 

Going into Wednesday’s slate of MLS matches, the Claret-and-Cobalt sit second in the Western Conference with a 99.99 percent of making the playoffs. 

RSL can clinch a playoff berth tonight if one of the two scenarios happen:

Minnesota United loses or draws against LAFC

OR

FC Dallas loses or draws against the Colorado Rapids

If neither happens, RSL can then clinch with a positive result on Saturday against Sporting KC. A win against Sporting KC on Saturday would also give Real Salt Lake the inside track to a top four spot in the Western Conference playoffs, securing home field advantage in the first round.

While RSL’s path to the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs is much more clear, Saturday’s match against Sporting demonstrates there’s still a lot to play for. 

October 7 will also give fans one last opportunity to turn America First Field into a fortress this MLS regular season. 

Fans are encouraged to wear red to the game for a “Red Out” and the Club can’t wait to thank you for all your support this season during Fan Appreciation Night. 

Tickets are still available, and you won’t want to miss this rivalry match against Sporting KC. Tickets are available here. 

Current MLS Western Conference Standings the morning of October 4, 2023

Club Points GP

Playoff Line -

14. Colorado 26 30 (Eliminated)

Below is a team by team breakdown of the MLS Western Conference with an RSL angle, postseason projection and potential Decision Day drama:

THE RSL ANGLE: St. Louis would be the probable RSL opponent in the Conference Semifinals should both emerge from the best-of-3 First Round, assuming RSL settles in the 4/5 seed. RSL won at St. Louis during a June midweek match at CITY Park, with Damir Kreilach scoring twice in a 3-1 win. During Matchday Four of this season, RSL dropped an 0-4 home decision in its first-ever contest against STL, with the expansion side scoring all four goals in the second half.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: St. Louis has run away from the pack to secure the West’s top seed, the surprising expansion side the first ever to earn a regular-season Conference title. CITY Park will be a force throughout the postseason, as the West road to MLS Cup 2023 surely winds through the Gateway City.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: St. Louis will host Seattle on Decision Day in a contest that could reverberate throughout the West, with the Sounders traveling to CITY Park on Sat., Oct. 21. Seattle could be in need of the full three points to establish a favorable top-4 seed on the Western side of the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs bracket.

THE RSL ANGLE: RSL sits and watches eight Western Conference teams play on Wednesday night, looking to see if it's improbable and dramatic 1-0 win at LAFC Sunday that vaulted the Claret-and-Cobalt into second place is enough to keep the Utah side near the top of the West heading into Saturday’s home match with Sporting Kansas City.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Based on this year’s home/away PPG, strength of schedule, as well as Sunday’s road win at LAFC, the math now says RSL has 99.9999% qualified for the postseason, and should finish second  in the West. With each of its three contests against teams currently on the outside looking in – and the final two against likely-eliminated LA Galaxy / Colorado, vital road points are on the table for RSL to capture a top-4 seed in the West.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: RSL travels to suburban Denver looking to complete an unprecedented 4-game sweep of its Rocky Mountain Cup rival Rapids, with RSL boasting a pair of late-May wins at Colorado in MLS (3-2) and Open Cup (1-0), prior to the early September 2-0 home win that secured the fan-created Rocky Mountain Cup for the 12 time in 15 seasons. (RSL was able to earn a perfect 9 points in 3 games in 2013 against former expansion brethren Chivas USA).

THE RSL ANGLE: Seattle could potentially usurp RSL for the second spot in the West with a dynamic combination of results in the late-season run-out, but the Sounders – RSL’s likely Conference Semifinal opponent should the pair advance from the best-of-3 first round series – would somehow need to overcome the WINS tiebreaker, currently held by RSL. RSL dropped an 0-2 reg. season contest at Seattle in March on Matchday Two of the 2023 season, and drew with the Sounders 0-0 at America First Field in in late April, before a dominant 3-0 home win for RSL in the first Leagues Cup match for each side on July 22, with goals by Chicho Arango, Jefferson Savarino and Rubio Rubin.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Seattle has heated up at the right time this year, as it often does, one of three West teams unbeaten in the last five contests. A top 3 seed is likely, as the Sounders will be favored in each of its three MLS contests prior to Decision Day in St. Louis, who have secured the top spot and will be in a celebratory mood on Oct. 21.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: Perennial contender Seattle travels to St. Louis on the final day of the 2023 MLS Regular Season looking to position itself favorably, and very likely jockeying with RSL / LAFC for a 2-3-4 spot.

THE RSL ANGLE: RSL’s dramatic 1-0 win at LAFC Sunday reversed the results of two previous 2023 meetings with the defending MLS Cup Champions, RSL dropping a home meeting on May 13 in MLS play along with an 0-4 Leagues Cup loss at BMO Stadium on August 8 in the Round of 16. The gritty and unexpected RSL road win has set the tone for RSL’s road mentality down the stretch.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Following the RSL loss, LAFC continues a 4-game/10-day slate with Wednesday’s hosting of Minnesota prior to a trip to playoff hopeful Austin on Saturday. Despite no rest for the weary, LAFC should finish in the top three in the West, although both its home MLS contests feature the two of the West’s best road teams – RSL and Minnesota – and the defending champs could fall into the 4/5 playoff range.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: LAFC heads to Vancouver on Sat., Oct. 21 in a match that could determine Audi MLS Cup Playoff seeding for a pair of West Top-4 contenders.

THE RSL ANGLE: Houston’s road victory at Messi-less Miami kicked off four games in 10 days with last week’s Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup Final, the Claret-and-Cobalt faithful still lamenting the extra-time Semifinal loss in late August to the eventual USOC Champions. Houston is one of the teams – along with Portland, Vancouver, San Jose – battling for the 4-5-6 seeds in the West, a race that will likely see each team separated by a point or two with all the head-to-head battles in the final month.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Dominant at home and poor on the road, Houston will need to capture the full six points in its matches at Montreal and against Colorado to harbor any hopes of a top 4 seed in the West. Drawing at home in an emotional Copa Tejas with in-state rival Dallas three days after the Open Cup Final in Miami added pressure to the Dynamo’s pair of games this week, at Montreal and then home against Colorado.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: Houston travels to Portland on the final day of the 2023 reg. season, with the two sides battling at Providence Park in a match that will have massive implications on mid-table seeding in the West 

THE RSL ANGLE: A vaunted Vancouver team enters the stretch run capturing a road draw in the final road match of 7 straight away this midweek in Colorado. Vancouver and RSL will no doubt spend the remainder of the 2023 MLS reg. season scoreboard watching each others’ results in a battle for the 4 seed and home-field advantage in the First Round.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: A Cascadia Cup road match at Seattle arrives this weekend on the heels of a home contest midweek against St. Louis in a busy 10-day stretch prior to the FIFA break, with the Whitecaps modeled to earn six more points this season and finishing in that 5 spot, just behind RSL, SEA, LAFC. The math might not hold, however, with the ‘Caps slated to play the 3 of the West’s top 4 teams – STL, SEA and LAFC – in their final trio of matchdays.

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DECISION DAY DRAMA: A home game on the BC Place turf against LAFC on Decision Day will likely have massive implications for the entire West bracket.

THE RSL ANGLE: Galvanized by the interim appointment of former RSL assistant Miles Joseph to the head coaching chair, Portland is the hottest team in the West, unbeaten in seven since Joseph replaced Giovanni Savarese. Additionally, the Timbers boast a 19-game unbeaten run in the last four September slates. With only two games remaining, including away at Montreal Saturday prior to a Decision Day home match, the Timbers control their destiny and will arrive at either the First Round or the Wild Card round full of confidence in the West.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: The math says Portland will end on 46 points, tied with San Jose and Houston, with the goal differential and goals scored tiebreakers potentially forcing the red-hot Timbers into the Wild Card round.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: Portland hosts Houston at Providence Park on Sat., Oct. 21, two teams with strong home and woeful road form throughout the 2023 campaigns. Loser of this match likely drops into Wild Card status for an Oct. 25/26 contest in the 8/9 seed.

THE RSL ANGLE: ​​San Jose’s dismal road performances to this point in 2023 project to provide little to no resistance against Portland, Minnesota and Dallas, three teams competing for the 5-6-7 range in the West. The Earthquakes have lost just once in their last five contests, however, with a home win over RSL – proving to be a tough out no matter the locale.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: San Jose seems to be running out of matches at a time it wishes it had a little more runway, the ‘Quakes projecting to be a West Wild Card contestant, likely on the road instead of hosting at PayPal Park. 

DECISION DAY DRAMA: San Jose hosts Austin FC on the final day of 2023 in a game that could determine fates for not just the Quakes and Verde, but for multiple other West sides as well.

THE RSL ANGLE: Dallas’ midweek road win at RSL last week buoyed its postseason chances, with three games remaining on the schedule to wreak havoc in the West.  Unbeaten in its last five contests, as well as looking at a favorable schedule, the Hoops could heat up at the right time and insert themselves into the conversation, battling RSL for midtable seeding if the Claret-and-Cobalt stumble.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Earning road draws at Philadelphia and Houston in its last two matches convinces the math to say Dallas will likely finish in Wild Card range, probably hosting the 8/9 contest in the West. With two of its final three at home against Colorado and San Jose – neither side a road power – the recent uptick in Dallas’ form could be coming at precisely the right time.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: Dallas finishes its 2023 reg. season with a trip to Carson to face the LA Galaxy, who may or may not be eliminated coming out of the FIFA break. Will this game matter to the rest of the West?

THE RSL ANGLE: RSL hosts Sporting Kansas City on Sat., Oct. 7 in the Claret-and-Cobalt’s home reg. season finale, with a full-stadium RED OUT on “Fan Appreciation Night” sure to add electricity to an already critical contest for RSL, as the Utah side looks to re-establish America First Field as the home-dominant fortress it has been for most of the last 15 years. With the history between these two teams, however, all the records can be thrown out; RSL and SKC simply do not like each other, especially with the 2021 Decision Day “Damiracle” still fresh in everyone’s competitive mind.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Kansas City appears to be another team that might have run out of runway late, with its rollercoaster form unable to overcome a deep hole dug during the 2023 campaign’s early days, SKC winless in its first 10. With only two games remaining, on the road at RSL and home vs. MIN, Peter Vermes’ team will need upsets in both to have a shout.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: Perennial contender Seattle travels to St. Louis on the final day of the 2023 MLS Regular Season with an outside shot at the top seed, and very likely jockeying with LAFC for either the 2 or 3 seeds. 

THE RSL ANGLE: Minnesota and RSL each share three opponents in the season’s final four games, with RSL now nursing an eight-point advantage in the standings over the Loons. Both sides travel to LAFC and host Sporting KC in the campaign’s last few weeks, with RSL traveling to face the Galaxy in a makeup game on the FIFA weekend, while Minnesota hosts Greg Vanney’s new-look team and its recent signature late-game heroics.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: With just two draws in their last five contests, including the allowance of three unanswered against the Galaxy to turn a 3-1 lead into a 3-4 loss, Minnesota needs to overperform the mathematical models in order to try and find its way into the postseason, even as a Wild Card 8/9 seed.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: The Loons travel to (polite) rival Sporting KC on Sat., Oct. 21, each side hoping to have something to play for, even improbably. Minnesota’s road form throughout 2023 could make this one worth watching.

THE RSL ANGLE: Austin’s Oct. 7 home game against LAFC – a rematch of last year’s West Final – could be critical to RSL’s seeding aspirations, especially if RSL can steal a result at LAFC this weekend. Verde also finishes its four-game stretch run on Decision Day against San Jose, who may or may not have made a run that threatens RSL’s mid-table standing a month from now.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: The YETI boys will likely need to sweep its final three contests to pull itself into the playoff picture, with too many home draws of late and dismal road form throughout 2023. With DCU and San Jose on the slate though, anything is possible in a league where anyone can beat anyone else on any given day.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: Verde finish the year at San Jose on Sat., Oct. 21, potentially needing the full three points to vault themselves into the Wild Card round. With 50+ consecutive sellouts at Q2 Stadium, if they can get to the dance – watch out.

THE RSL ANGLE: The Galaxy host RSL during the October FIFA break on Sat., Oct. 14 in SoCal, in a game rescheduled from late August due to Hurricane Hilary. RSL has split each of its two previous 2023 contests with the Galaxy, a pair of 3-2 results at America First Field a week apart in late May/early June, RSL winning the Open Cup Quarterfinal on June 7.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: The new-look / cardiac clutch LA Galaxy hit the stretch run with several new faces and four games remaining, likely needing 9-12 points to factor in the 2023 MLS postseason. All four contests for the Galaxy oppose current Western Conference playoff contenders, with two of the four at home, where the Galaxy are +.500 thus far.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: The Galaxy host Dallas on Sat., Oct. 21 in a game that should affect seeding for somebody; will both the Gs and FCD need the full three points to factor?

THE RSL ANGLE: RSL arrives in Colorado for the final 2023 reg. season match looking to secure the full three points to reward the Claret-and-Cobalt faithful, who have witnessed three RSL wins already this season against its Rocky Mountain Cup rivals. RSL is also hoping to capture a rare fourth win over the same opponent in a single season. The 2013 RSL side secured the full 9 points in 3 games against expansion brethren Chivas USA, and can exceed that milestone with an Oct. 21 road win in suburban Denver.

POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Colorado is already eliminated from 2023 postseason contention, but can definitely play a spoiler role, as all three of its remaining games involve playoff hopefuls. The Rapids came back to draw at home with Vancouver midweek, defeated Austin this past weekend prior to road trips at Dallas and Houston, before finishing the year with RSL at home on Decision Day.

DECISION DAY DRAMA: RSL already owns 12 Rocky Mountain Cup titles in the last 15 years, but the three points available at Pablo Mastroeni’s former home could provide RSL home-field advantage and a top 4 seed on the Western side of the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.