Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/2/23)
Happy Sunday RotoBallers, and welcome to the 2023 MLB season! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly (no pun intended), going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, March 31st, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 1-1-0 (-0.6 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Rays
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TB -190
DET: Joey Wentz | TB: Jeffrey Springs
I'll start my Sunday pick selections down in St. Pete as the Tigers and Rays wrap up their opening series. We ran an NRFI play on Friday in Miami, which hit, and we'll look to do the same here.
The visiting Tigers will send southpaw Joey Wentz to the mound. Wentz was excellent in the first inning in 2022, tossing a scoreless first in six of his seven games last year, including both starts on the road. He'll take on a Rays offense that scored in the first yesterday but only achieved in 29% of first innings last year and at a 32% clip at the Trop.
Conversely, the Rays will also send a southpaw to the mound in the form of Jeffrey Springs. Like Wentz, Springs was excellent in the opening frame in 2022. He allowed a first-inning run in just five of 25 starts overall, and in just one of his 11 starts, he made at home. He'll face a Tigers lineup that scored in 21% of the first innings last season and 15% on the road.
FanDuel is offering us what I think is a solid line at -132 for the first inning under. My data model gives the first inning under implied odds of -190.
Pick: First Inning under 0.5 Runs (-132) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.32 units to win 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Athletics
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: OAK +138
LAA: Tyler Anderson | OAK: Ken Waldichuk
We'll head out west for our second play of the day. After a shocking Opening Day loss in Oakland, the Halos answered the bell on Saturday, culminating in a 13-1 rout. I'll back them to win the series this afternoon.
They'll send newly-acquired lefty Tyler Anderson to the mound. Anderson is coming off of the best season of his career, a 20-5, 2.57 ERA with the Dodgers. The A's lineup projects poorly against the southpaw, with a projected .261 wOBA, 24.1% hard contact rate, and 23.7% strikeout rate. While I think Anderson was an "overachiever" in 2022, he has enough stuff to navigate the Oakland lineup today.
5️⃣ Ks on the night for Tyler Anderson! pic.twitter.com/Gt8qreZSfr
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) March 28, 2023
On the other side, the home A's will send Ken Waldichuk to the hill. Waldichuk made his final start of 2022 against the Angels, tossing seven innings of shutout ball on October 5th. While that was an impressive outing, to say the least, I'm not putting too much stock into it. He projects to a 4.26 xFIP this afternoon against an Angels lineup that projects a .330 wOBA and a whopping 41.39% hard contact rate against him.
The line is relatively steep here, but I think it's worth it, as the Angels have a significant talent advantage over their California counterparts. As I'm typing this, you can get this line at -164 on FanDuel, which I will be doing.
Pick: Angels Money Line (-164) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.64 units to win 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow (hopefully)!
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