Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/27/23)
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 27, 2023.
Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 50% off. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily!LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 61-45-3 (+2.51 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Orioles
I'll look at a pair of strong favorites this afternoon, starting out in Baltimore as the Rockies and Orioles close out their weekend set.
It'll be Ty Blach (1-1, 4.39 ERA) making his seventh start for the Rockies this afternoon. Blach is due for some serious regression; bringing in a 6.68 xERA and 5.18 xFIP. He projects to a 5.91 SIERA today against an Orioles lineup that projects to a .367 wOBA. I don't expect Blach to go super deep into this game, which gives the Orioles an opportunity to feast on the Rockies bullpen, who project to a 4.47 SIERA.
It'll be Jack Flaherty taking the ball for Baltimore today. Flaherty (8-8, 4.73 ERA) has pitched pretty poorly in an Orioles uniform, allowing 11 earned runs in just 14 innings across three starts. With that said, though, he is due for some positive regression. While his projected 4.88 SIERA isn't great, it should be more than enough to get the job done against a poor Rockies offense that projects to a .321 wOBA today.
I think the Orioles dominate this one “from bell to bell.” I’ll take the value and back them to win the first five innings as well as the full game. We can get that at -105 on DraftKings.
Pick: Game Parlay: Orioles F5 Moneyline / Orioles Moneyline (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.95 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Blue Jays
We'll wrap things up for the weekend out in Toronto, as Cleveland finishes up their series there before heading over to Minnesota.
Noah Syndergaard (2-6, 6.42 ERA) has not been great this season but will take the ball for the Guardians today. This will be his sixth start for Cleveland, and it's certainly been up-and-down. He did pitch well against the Blue Jays back on August 10, tossing 5.2 innings of one-run ball. That likely won't help him today as my model projects him to a 5.04 SIERA. The Jays project to a .325 wOBA in this one.
It'll be Yusei Kikuchi (9-4, 3.52 ERA) taking the ball for Toronto today. Kikuchi has been on a heater, allowing one run or less in six of his last seven starts. He is due for some regression, but not much, as he projects to a 3.81 SIERA today. However, the Guardians' offense projects very poorly today, with just a projected .254 wOBA. While the Blue Jays betting lines are juiced, they have a very clear pitching and offensive advantage in this one.
I'll leave the quality Cleveland bullpen out of things here by grabbing the Blue Jays' first-five run line, which we can get at -160 on FanDuel.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-160), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
