Today's NBA Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets for Thunder vs. Clippers, Celtics vs. Kings
As the NBA season rolls on, we’re treated to a short but loaded schedule of games for Tuesday night. The slate is anchored by two exciting games on NBA TV: Cavaliers vs. Nets (7:30 p.m. ET) and Celtics vs. Kings (10 p.m. ET).
Our staff has three best bets today, including player props and spread picks for two of tonight’s matchups. Read on for their expert picks and predictions for Tuesday.
NBA Odds & Picks
Boston Celtics vs. Sacramento Kings
Bryan Fonseca: Jaylen Brown’s been buggin’ out from beyond the arc lately, and in general. He’s averaging 32.5 points per game over his past four, and during that stretch, he’s hit 15-of-33 from deep, good for 45.5% on his 3s. He’s also hit four or more 3s in three of these contests, all of which have been away from home as the Celtics are in the midst of a six-game road trip.
The Kangz aren’t only one of the worst defenses in the league, their opponents are hitting 37.2% from the 3-point line, sixth-highest tally in the league, and potentially none of the teams who are worse may make the playoffs, unless the Toronto Raptors or Indiana Pacers breakthrough these last couple weeks.
Bottom line: Ride Brown’s hot hand against a woeful Kings defense. I’d be surprised if he isn’t again hovering around eight or 10 attempts from deep, and if so, betting him to hit three feels safe — he’s gone over this number 21 times in 27 games when he’s attempted at least eight 3s.
Of course, this is gambling after all, so nothing is for certain, but this is one of my favorite props tonight, so let’s get it.
Boston Celtics vs. Sacramento Kings
Chris Baker: This is a horrible situational spot for the Kings as this will be their fifth game in seven days and it is off a back-to-back. This team has been traveling non-stop over the past week and it is starting to affect their play on the court.
The Jazz team that the Kings lost to last night was essentially a G-league team as they rested most of their key starters for that one. I also believe the Celtics matchup well with this team. The Kings got blown out when they faced Boston earlier this season and if we dive into the shot chart for that game it’s easy to see why.
The Kings shot just 35% of their shots from beyond the arc and just 30% at the rim. The Celtics forced them into tough shots by switching and running them off the 3-point line. The Celtics have only gotten healthier since then as Robert Williams III should be back to contain Sabonis for this one.
Another edge for the Celtics will be their transition defense as they rank fourth in transition defensive rating this year. That is obviously huge when attempting to contain this Kings offense as the Kings rank fourth in transition rate and offensive rating. If the Celtics can force the Kings to play at their pace that would give them a massive edge as their half-court defense is significantly better than the Kings.
I’ve talked about it ad nauseam: The Kings have played the second-easiest schedule in the NBA, according to Dunks And Threes. Their defense rank bottom-five in Defensive Rating despite playing the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
The schedule strength disparity is massive here as the C’s have played the ninth-most difficult schedule of opponents and the single most difficult schedule of opposing defenses. The Celtics rank a full 3.4 points better than the Kings by Net Rating so getting essentially a 1-point tax for all of the situational concerns seems like a no-brainer to me.
Trust the Celtics to capitalize on their two-day rest advantage and cover this number at -4.5. Play this one up to -5.5.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Matt Moore: In what world should the Clippers be laying 6.5 to this Thunder team? It’s not a back-to-back, so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to play. The Clippers are up just two games in the loss column on the Thunder. OKC has a better schedule-adjusted net rating this season per Dunks And Threes. Not just that, they have a better schedule-adjusted offense and defense.
The Clippers are below .500 as a home favorite, while the Thunder are a stellar 19-8-1 ATS as a road dog.
Again, under what conditions should the Clippers be laying this many points? This line is madness.
The Clippers can smash them by 100 and I will still feel this line was simply wrong. I make this Clippers -1, which is a lot more in line with who these two teams have been for the last six months of basketball.
