Bulls vs. Timberwolves prediction: how we’re betting Friday’s NBA contest
Before Friday’s game tips off from the United Center, we’re set to provide a Bulls vs. Timberwolves prediction and best bet.
Both teams are coming off losses, with the Timberwolves in worse form. Most recently, Minnesota lost by two at home against the Celtics, their third loss in their past four games.
The Bulls lost by three at home against the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday, but captured two straight wins in the two prior games. They’re 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 224.5 points.
Total Under 224.5 Points (-110)
Although this is among the lower totals on Friday night’s board, there should still be room to the under.
For the Timberwolves, their offense is already among the worst in the league — they rank 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per dunksandthrees.com — and remain without Karl-Anthony Towns. Rudy Gobert is questionable, leaving the T’Wolves further short-handed.
Plus, recent results leave the T’Wolves offense in line with their results for the season as they’re 24th in offensive rating over their past 10 games before jumping to ninth overall across their past five. However, given four of those five games came at home, I’m skeptical to buy their offense at this point.
What’s more is that for all the Bulls’ problems this season, their defense has proved quite capable.
The Bulls are fifth in adjusted defensive rating, again per dunksandthrees.com, having faced the 12th-hardest set of opposing offenses. They’re also an outstanding home defense, surrendering almost three fewer points per game at the United Center (111.2 vs. 113.9), per Team Rankings.
Shrink their home schedule down to the nine games against sides currently ranked 21st or worse in the adjusted offensive ratings and bettors will find the Bulls’ points per game allowed output drops further to 108 points per game.
At the same time, though, this is not a Bulls offense that will cause many problems for the T’Wolves defense.
Much like Minnesota, Chicago’s strength is built up from the defensive end as they rank 23rd in adjusted offensive rating.
Additionally, they’re a bottom-half team when it comes to scoring points on their home floor and are facing a T’Wolves defense that ranks 11th in adjusted defensive rating, including eighth over their past 10 games.
Further, this rates as a good sell-high spot on the Bulls offense, which is coming off two straight games against bottom-third defenses. In two games against the Rockets and Kings, they averaged 116.5 points per game against defenses that average an adjusted defensive rating of 27.5.
With the uptick in competition, expect the Bulls offense to simultaneously struggle in what I expect to be a low-scoring game.
