Top things Cheltenham race-goers should keep in mind if they want to back a winning horse
A supercomputer has revealed the top things race-goers should take into account if they're looking to back a winning horse at Cheltenham Festival this week.
Racing data from 1990 all the way through to today shows that horses with the best chance of winning the Gold Cup – the main race at the world-famous event – are eight years old, and have been trained by a British trainer.
The horses themselves are typically born in Ireland, but to a French Dam and Sire – and should ideally have a betting position of two.
And when it comes to the jockeys, it appears there are also ways they can help themselves to victory – and wearing a jersey with a starry pattern is the best way to do so.
Three out of the last five Gold Cup winners have all worn a starry pattern on their silks, with 48% of all winning jockeys over the last 15 years sporting stars – and white stars being the best colour to back.
The data was compiled by bet365, which asked its supercomputer to work out statistically which type of horse and rider was most likely to see success this year.
Inputting data such as the winning horses' ages, countries of origin, where their sires were from, and more, determined a “typical winner”.
A bet365 spokesman said: “There may be favourites heading to Cheltenham, but no horse, jockey, or trainer is guaranteed success at the Festival, with the elite of world horse racing all competing across the four days.
“Each year stars will emerge from Prestbury Park, and it’s amazing to see that it is the jockeys wearing stars that have dominated historically.”
The betting giant’s supercomputer pored through data of every winner and contender of the Gold Cup since 1990, to calculate 2024’s likely champion.
The characteristics of all champion horses at the Cheltenham Gold Cup were extracted, to determine the features of a “typical winning horse” at the race.
With comprehensive numerical information on the characteristics of a winning horse ready, the next step was to find which horses from 2024 come closest to a typical winner.
They were looking for a “similarity score” of all horses entered, with the horse scoring closest to one, given the highest probability of success. The supercomputer’s simulations favour Fastorslow, who has a similarity score of 0.9854.
The French horse is eight years old, which hits the sweet spot for the age of a typical Gold Cup winning horse – and its sire and dam are also of French origin.
Its betting position, as of now, is two, which adds to the similarity – and thus, the horse has been given a 95% chance of winning the Gold Cup.
The second favourite is Irish horse Shishkin, closely followed by Gerri Colombe, from France. But defending champion, Galopin des Champs, is down as the tenth favourite, as far as the algorithmic predictions are concerned.
Bet365’s spokesman added: “The beauty of the Gold Cup – and horse racing in general – is that there is always room for an upset.
“If it were possible to predict the outcome of a race with total accuracy, then the sport would have been over and done with years ago. So, while you can give yourself a sporting chance of success by looking at what’s come before, the future is totally unwritten.”
THE SUPERCOMPUTER’S PREDICTION FOR THE GOLD CUP WINNER:
- Age: 8 years old
- Betting position: 2
- Initial odds: 8.00
- Ran over 26 furlongs: FALSE
- Country of Origin (Trainer): Great Britain
- Country of Origin (Horse): Ireland
- Country of Origin (Sire): France
- Country of Origin (Dam): France
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