Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay: Game 3 Betting Advice
So in hockey language, I guess those first 40 seconds in Game 2 of the Maple Leafs/Tampa Bay Lightning series was what a five-alarm fire looks like.
With the weight of a hockey nation on their collective shoulders, compounded by 55 years of not winning much of anything (and don’t rhyme off regular season achievements to people in this city), the Leafs reversed the playoff narrative and blew out the Lightning 7-2 to even their series, heading back to Tampa Saturday night.
To help with your , we look back and ahead at this series.
Leafs Didn't Hear the Noise? Don't Believe It
Mitch Marner especially played like a demon off the opening faceoff, drew an Ian Cole penalty, then, instead of trying to make a fancy pass while playing the point, slapped home the opening goal in an un-Marner-like manner at the 47-second mark.
Marner said before the game, the players don’t listen to the media or outside noise, but we’re not buying it. With the level of pro sports malaise in Leafland, without comparison in pro sports, that heavy fog of doom was seeping into that room, even if it was by osmosis. Everyone had to be feeling it.
But as we also said, it was going to come down to a player or two, relatively new to the circle, with a winning pedigree, to push the core players through these unique mental hurdles of playoff hockey in Toronto. That wasn’t a scared young team off the draw.
In this corner, we’re giving the credit to veteran Mark Giordano. In just his second season here, it’s clear Gio had had enough with the typical playoff narratives in Toronto, and his fight with Tampa’s Zach Bogosian, three minutes into the first period, sent the crowd into even more of a frenzy and further jacked up his teammates. Plus, he won the fight, which is not bad for a guy pushing 40.
From then on, it was a one-sided affair.
So What Do the Leafs Need to Do Going into Game 3?
Suit up Wayne Simmonds
It was clear the Lightning would try to goon it up the higher the score got, and that’s what happened, turning loose Pat Maroon and Corey Perry late in the game. The game had three fights overall – including a spirited Luke Schenn-Tanner Jeannot punch-up in the third.
Simmonds isn’t the player he was (he had 32 goals with Philadelphia in 2015-16). However, he’ll still beat up anybody in a fight, even at 34, and that’s what the Leafs are going to need to keep Tampa honest in Game 3, in a hostile environment, so their skill players can do what they do. Take your pick on who to sit – our vote is Alexander Kerfoot, off that second line, a perimeter player in a series that will only get grittier.
Keep playing Matthew Knies
Coach Sheldon Keefe played the 20-year-old with Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari in what was the flashy rookie’s playoff debut.
That created an effective third line combining playoff experience and youth, putting any debate about Keefe stacking up his second line with O’Reilly out of the question for Game 3.
Keep playing Knies and keep that third line together.
Don’t change G Ilya Samsonov’s routine ahead of Game 3
Whatever Samsonov did to change his game and come out with confidence in Game 2, repeat it to the detail. He told Sportsnet that pre-game, he watched poker all day, stayed away from the phone, and spent time with his newborn.
Samsonov, for us, was the biggest difference-maker in Game 2.
Fighting the puck in Game 1, admitting nerves were a significant factor, and allowing six goals in two periods, Samsonov turned it around and team confidence flowed from there.
So how do the have Game 3?
What do Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game 3 Futures Look Like?
So what do the futures look like?
BetMGM Sportsbook says Leafs/Lightning is the most bet-on NHL playoff series (followed by Devils/Rangers, Golden Knights/Jets).
The Rangers are the most bet (tickets) to win their series, (1.18), followed by the Leafs (1.67). Most bet (handle) teams to win their series are the Oilers first (1.4), followed by the Leafs (1.67).
NorthStar Bets has the Leafs at 1.68 to win the series, Tampa at 2.24.
In terms of betting Game 3, look to Total Goals. With Game 1 at a total of 10 scored, and Game 2 at nine goals, the Over for Game 3 at NorthStar Bets, for example, is 6.5 (2.02). We’re betting the Over there.
The power play has been a big factor in this series so far and with emotions ratcheting up, we don’t expect that to change. The Leafs were 2-for-6 on the PP in Game 2 and Tampa was 0-for-3. The Lightning were 4-for-8, and the Leafs were 2-for-4 in Game 1.
As a comparison, PointsBet Canada has the O/U at 6.5 (2.0 on the Over), and Proline has Total Goals 6.5, and the Over at 1.97.
