Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs (51-22-11) are 7-12 SU in their last 19 road games against the Tampa Bay Lightning (47-31-6). The Maple Leafs will be looking for better results on the road in game three against the Lightning this Saturday night in Tampa Bay.

The OVER is 8-0 in the Lightning’s last eight home games against the Maple Leafs with an average of 7.75 total goals per game scored in those eight games. If Tampa Bay closes as a home underdog, it will be the first time the Lightning have been an underdog at home since March 18, 2017. The Lightning went 28-8-5 at home during the regular season.

Latest Betting Notes: Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs bounced back from a 7-3 blowout loss at home in Game 1 with a 7-2 blowout win in Game 2 on Thursday night. Morgan Reilly recorded four assists in the game including assists on two of John Tavares’s three goals in the victory. Tavares has now scored six goals in his last five postseason games.

Toronto improved to 5-1 SU over its last six games with Thursday’s win. The Maple Leafs had a solid road record during the regular season with a 23-13-5 mark away from home. Michael Bunting will still be out in Game 3 as he continues to serve the three-game suspension he received for his illegal check to the head on Erik Cernak in Game 1.

Latest Betting Notes: Lightning

The Lightning were missing two of their top defensemen in Game 2 with Erik Cernak out with a head injury and Victor Hedman out with an undisclosed injury. Both players are listed as questionable to return for Game 3. Corey Perry scored a goal in Game 2 and has now scored in each of the first two games in this series after going without a goal during his last 25 regular season games.

Tampa Bay fell to 2-5 SU over its last seven games with the loss in Game 2. The Lightning have been struggling on defense during this slump allowing 4.71 goals per game over that seven-game stretch. As a result, the OVER is 6-1 in those seven games.

Maple Leafs Player Prop: Auston Matthews Over 1.5 Points (+171)

Auston Matthews had another strong campaign during the 2022-23 regular season with 40 goals and 45 assists in 74 games played. He’s off to a good start in this series as well with two assists in both Game 1 and Game 2. It feels like only a matter of time before the Maple Leafs sniper gets his first goal of the series as well.

Matthews has recorded 21 points in his last 15 games. He has also scored at least two points in seven of those 15 games. With the current form that he’s in on offense, it’s hard to pass on Matthews going over 1.5 points in Game 3 at this price.

Lightning Player Prop: Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Assists (+150)

Nikita Kucherov finished second to only Connor McDavid in assists this season with 83 assists in 82 games. Kucherov has recorded two or more assists in a game four times in his last 12 games, including a one-goal and two-assist performance in Game 1 of this series.

The right-winger was more effective at home this season on offense than he was on the road with 50 assists in 41 home games compared to 33 assists in 41 road games. After being held scoreless in Game 2, look for Kucherov to rebound at home with a strong game, and the price seems fair to take a shot on him recording two assists for the second time in this series.