Maple Leafs betting trends ahead of the playoffs: Key stats for first-round series vs. Lightning
The NHL playoffs are back and the Toronto Maple Leafs stare down a familiar foe in Round 1.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are Toronto’s first-round opponent for the second time in as many postseasons. Toronto (-148) is the favourite to win the series and would end a 19-year drought if it advanced out of the first round. It would also mark the first time Tampa Bay has lost to an Eastern Conference team in the playoffs since 2019.
Maple Leafs betting trends
A quick refresher
It only seems right to start with a look back at last year’s series to see if there are any trends to extract.
Home-ice advantage wasn’t something that carried much weight between these squads. The home team went a very unimpressive 4-3, with neither side scoring more than two wins at its own rink.
The over was a profitable wager to make, as the two combined for more than 6.5 goals in five of seven contests. The only two games that didn’t exceed the total were Games 1 and 7 (both were played at Scotiabank Arena). All three games at Amalie Arena went over.
Betting on a puck line favourite wasn’t a wager that yielded much of a profit. It cashed in Games 1 and 4, but that was it.
The leading scorers were the usual suspects. Auston Matthews led the series with four goals and nine points. Nikita Kucherov paced the Bolts with eight points.
The only starting goalie returning, Andrei Vasilevskiy, wasn’t particularly impressive. He posted an .897 save percentage across seven starts, his worst mark in any round.
Season series review
Toronto and Tampa Bay only met three times this past year but the regular season edge lies with the former.
The Maple Leafs won two of the meetings, outscoring the Lightning 11-8. The Bolts’ only win came in the two’s first matchup of the season and in overtime.
Here are the players who scored three points or more in the head-to-heads.
It’s a fairly small list, one that notably excludes Matthews (he had two points in two games) and Kucherov (two points in three games).
The puck line favourite covered in just one of three games and the home team won two of the contests.
The over on a 6.5-goal total came through twice.
Road warriors
Toronto is figuring it out on the road just in time for the postseason.
The Maple Leafs are 5-1-0 in their last six contests away from home with their only loss being a 2-1 shortcoming to the Boston Bruins. This stretch includes victories over playoff teams like the Lightning and New York Rangers.
Bettors will want to avoid picking Toronto as a road puck line favourite, however. Despite the recent uptick in wins, the Buds have won just one of their last six by multiple goals.
The most encouraging development of the squad’s road success is the play of Ilya Samsonov. The Russian netminder owns a .973 save percentage across his last three away outings, turning aside 107 of 110 shots.
His improved play boosted his road save percentage up to a respectable .909 mark.
Road success is notable ahead of a series with the Lightning, who own the second-best home record (28-8-5) in the NHL.
Nylander heating up
With Toronto taking some opportunities to scale back minutes for Matthews and Mitch Marner, one player stepping up is William Nylander.
The talented Maple Leafs winger has five points in four games since April 8. What’s even more impressive is his shot total, as he has 24 shots during this hot streak.
Nylander recently hit the 40-goal mark for the first time in his career, too.
His numbers stack up well compared to the rest of the league.
Nylander is third in expected goals (2.78), potting three. He sits first in scoring chances (24) while tying for the lead in high-danger chances (13) over this run, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Considering his strong numbers as of late and against Tampa Bay this season, we’re all for backing Nylander to score a goal and on his shot prop.
Fading Morgan Rielly
Betting on Rielly to produce hasn’t been a fruitful wager to make this season.
Despite quarterbacking a power play ranking second in the league during April (26.0%), the blueliner only has two points in seven games during the month. In fact, he has only recorded a point in two of his last eight outings.
One plausible reason for this is a downtick in ice time. He’s averaging 21:42 in TOI this season but has fallen short of this total in eight of his last nine games.
This could be head coach Sheldon Keefe purposefully scaling back his usage before the postseason, or it could be Toronto’s new approach on the back end with all of the additions it made ahead of the deadline.
Either way, until we see the minutes up and the production back, we’re going to wager against Rielly notching a point.
