Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The NBA is back in action after an exciting All-Star Break. The Association rolls out a 10-game slate on Friday night, and one of the interesting matchups on the schedule features a battle between the Toronto Raptors and the Atlanta Hawks. Toronto entered Thursday’s game at 19-36 (12th in East), while Atlanta is currently 24-31 (10th in East). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.
*This article was written before the completion of Toronto’s Thursday night game.
Raptors Drop Third Straight Game
The Toronto front office threw in the towel on the 2023-2024 campaign when they shipped off most of their best players at the deadline. A few of those departures include Pascal Siakam (Pacers), OG Anunoby (Knicks), and Dennis Schroder (Nets). This team has really fallen off since early January, going just 4-18 over their last 22 games. This includes a current three-game slide, where they’ve dropped games to Cleveland (119-95), San Antonio (122-99), and Indiana (127-125), most recently. From a sports betting perspective, the Raptors enter this contest at 25-29-1 ATS and they’ve seen 29 of their 54 games go over the total.
The Raptors were edged out right before the All-Star Break, losing by two points at home to the Pacers. Toronto managed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. Statistically, Toronto had the edge in field goal percentage (51.0% to 48.5%) and rebounding (56 to 39), while Indiana was better from three-point range (41.5% to 23.1%) and in turnovers (8 to 15).
Individually, RJ Barrett has stepped up since coming over from New York, averaging 20.5 points per game. Jakob Poeltl has been productive down low, adding 11.0 points per contest while posting team high marks in both rebounding (8.5 RPG) and blocks (1.5 BPG).
Hawks Just 2-4 in Last Six Contests
It has been a rollercoaster ride of a season for Quin Snyder and his Hawks. However, they’ve managed enough success to remain in the playoff hunt. They’re currently in 10th in the East, holding a 2.5-game edge over the 11th-place Nets. The oddsmakers say it’s unlikely that Atlanta makes a push to the final eight teams in the East, pricing them at -500 to miss the playoffs. They’re +340 to navigate the play-in tournament and make the playoffs. As for their recent form, the Hawks dropped their final two games before the break, losing to Chicago (136-126) and Charlotte (122-99), more recently. As for their sports betting numbers, the Hawks are 17-38 ATS and they’ve seen the over cash at a rate of 30-24-1.
The most recent loss to the Hornets saw the Hawks fail to cover the spread as a 6.5-point road favorite. Charlotte had the edge in every major statistical category, including field goal percentage (49.4% to 40.4%), three-point shooting (40.5% to 23.7%), turnovers (13 to 16), and rebounding (46 to 45).
As for individual efforts, Trae Young has been the spark in the backcourt, paving the way in scoring (26.7 PPG), assists (10.9 APG), and steals (1.4 SPG). It’s worth noting Clint Capela (11.5 PPG, 10.6 RPG) is still out with a thigh injury.
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Full-Game Side Bet
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I’ll go ahead and say that neither of these teams are winning the title this season. However, this is still a pivotal matchup between the 10th- and 12th-ranked teams in the Eastern Conference. With that being said, I have to roll with the Hawks in this game. I think it simply comes down to the fact that Atlanta has the best player on the court in Trae Young. I like their scoring core much more than this skeleton cast that Toronto is rolling out.
Furthermore, the Raptors will be playing their second game in as many nights. They’re just 3-7-0 ATS (30%) this season when playing on zero days of rest. Also, they’re just 4-18 SU in their last 22 games. This Toronto organization is a complete disaster. Even though they’ll take on the worst defense in the league, they don’t have any bonafide scorers who can put up big numbers. I’ll take the Hawks in this one.
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks To Cover
Full-Game Total Pick
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As I was alluding to, this Hawks defense is atrocious this year. They’re dead last in the Association defensively, conceding 118.4 points per 100 possessions. Interestingly, Toronto isn’t much higher on the list, coming in at 23rd (115.2). I think we see Trae Young (26.7 PPG) and Dejounte Murray (21.4 PPG) carve up this Toronto defense, which once again, will be playing its second game in as many nights.
Additionally, Atlanta is one of the quickest teams in the league. They’re using 104.0 possessions per game, which is the third-most. The recipe is simple with the Hawks in that they want to run the court and turn every game into a barnburner. I think we get a classic high-scoring Hawks game on Friday night.
Finally, I had a hunch that Atlanta always plays in insanely high-scoring games on Fridays. I went back and checked their schedule, and over the last six Friday games, the totals have seen an average of 250.8 points per game. That’s just a fun “eye-test” theory that I wanted to throw in. Let’s lock in the over.
