Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Props, Odds Week 10: Predictions for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins host the Las Vegas Raiders as we make our best Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at our best sports betting apps.

In his last game, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for a season-low 193 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s still third in the league in passing yards per game, averaging 289.9, and he is tied for the league lead with 19 touchdown passes.

This week, he faces a Las Vegas Raiders defense that is allowing just 198.7 passing yards per game. Is Tua due for a bounce-back game, or will he struggle against another good defense?

NFL Week 11 predictions and Week 11 best bets, along with our Week 11 NFL props to accompany ourbest Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for the Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for Week 11

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Tua Tagovailoa player props

Tua Tagovailoa Under 269.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been so good this season that it’s hard ever to take his Under passing prop. However, the Raiders have serious issues defending the run, which means Dolphins running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are about to each have massive games on Sunday.

Though the Dolphins’ defense has been much-maligned, they’ve allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games. The Raiders offense is averaging just 17.2 per game, and they scored only 16 last week with Aidan O’Connell under center. With the Raiders struggling to score, the Dolphins will build a huge lead early and never look back. While Tua will have much to do with that early success, he won’t be needed much in the second half as the Dolphins run the ball all over the Raiders.

Every one of our best sports betting apps, besides FanDuel, has this prop listed at 262.5. Take the extra seven yards, no matter what the price is. Regarding a quarterback like Tua, it’s best to take the highest number, especially considering how explosive his weapons are.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 32.5 passing attempts (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tagovailoa has thrown more than 32 passes in each of his last two games, but the return of Achane should result in him attempting fewer passes this week. Even if Achane doesn’t play or is severely limited, Mostert will do most of the offensive work this week. 

Tagovailoa has thrown fewer than 33 passes in five of his nine games this season. All but one of those performances came in victories. The Dolphins’ offense has its most success when their passing game explodes for long plays, as amplified by Tagovailoa averaging 12.0 yards per completion. Without the need to throw the ball a lot on Sunday, Tagovailoa may end up with 250 yards without even throwing 30 passes.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooksoffering this prop at 32.5, as each of the others is offering 31.5. FanDuel is even offering the best price for the under despite their number being one higher than everyone else’s.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 touchdown passes (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐

The decision to take Tua’s under is simply based on value. Tagovailoa has thrown one touchdown pass in four of his nine games. While most of his damage has been done against some of the worst defenses in the league, there still isn’t much value in taking him to go over this number for a price of -190 or higher.

It is worth considering taking Tua to throw for Over 2.5 touchdown passes. This prop is only being offered at FanDuel right now, and the over is going for a price of +162. However, the Raiders are allowing just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game. Meanwhile, their defense is tied for 19th in rushing touchdowns allowed per game.

It’s simply more likely that Tua will throw for one touchdown than three. bet365 offers the best odds, as other best sports betting apps offer this under for between +135 and +145.

Tua Tagovailoa player prop picks made 11/18/2023 at 8:17 a.m. ET.

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