Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Week 4 Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets
- Who: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday, Oct. 1 (Week 4)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Dolphins +120, Bills -145
- Spread: Dolphins +3 (-115), Bills -3 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
In one of the early highlights of the 2023 NFL schedule, two teams that won games last week by a combined 84 points square off in a playoff rematch from last season that will help shape this year’s AFC East title race.
The Miami Dolphins looked like the late 90s/early 2000s “Greatest Show on Turf” St. Louis Rams last week, putting up the most points of any NFL team in nearly five decades while destroying Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos, 70-20. Miami Head Coach Mike McDaniel has the AFC’s lone unbeaten team at 3-0.
The Bills weren’t quite as eye-popping with their offensive production last week, but they did throttle the Washington Commanders 37-3. Head Coach Sean McDermott’s guys have outscored their last two opponents by 62 points, and after giving away a season-opening Monday night game against the Jets, Buffalo sits a game behind the Dolphins in the AFC East.
Both teams are generating legitimate early-season Super Bowl buzz. The Bills have the fourth-best futures odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (+950), while the Dolphins’ scorching start has them fifth-best (+1000).
Moneyline
There may not be a more hyped NFL team right now than the Dolphins. Understandably so with how well the offense has clicked. Tua Tagovailoa is playing at an MVP-caliber level, averaging more than 43 points per game. Is their current pace sustainable? No. But is it too tempting to take even slight plus-odds straight up with the league’s highest-scoring team?
The Bills are slight moneyline favorites at home despite Miami’s historically productive output. According to The Action Network, the Dolphins are the 27th team since 1990 to average more than 35 points through their first three games, but just the second to be listed as an underdog in their next game.
Josh Allen’s season-opening performance against the Jets was disastrous. He’s rebounded nicely since, completing nearly 84% of his passes in a Week 2 blowout of Las Vegas, then passing for a touchdown and running for another in last week’s demolishing of Washington.
Allen was terrific in Buffalo’s regular season home win over Miami last season, tossing four touchdown passes. He played unevenly in the playoff win, throwing three more TD passes, but he also committed three turnovers and nearly had two more.
Tagovailoa didn’t play for Miami that afternoon, and neither did Von Miller, whose 2022 ended early with a knee injury. His absence loomed over the Bills’ divisional-round loss to Cincinnati, a game that highlighted the team’s sagging late season defense.
Miller is out again this week, sitting out his required fourth game while on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Despite being a major concern for much of the offseason, the Bills’ pass rush has made a reappearance, even without Miller, as Buffalo sacked Commanders quarterback Sam Howell nine times and forced five turnovers in last week’s win.
Amid the hype surrounding Miami’s skill players and quarterback, its offensive line through three weeks has arguably been the league’s best. Despite left tackle Terron Armstead missing the first two games, Tagovailoa has been sacked just once.
Buffalo’s pass rush has been a pleasant surprise, but it doesn’t seem trustworthy quite yet, and in a game that should be close, bettors should trust a healthy and upright Tua more than Josh Allen, who’s looking to go without a turnover in consecutive games.
Point Spread
Bettors who find Miami on the moneyline a little too juicy should be salivating when looking at the spread, which favors the Bills by three points.
For all of Buffalo’s straight-up recent regular season dominance at Highmark Stadium, there have been some struggles against the number. The Bills did cover as 7.5-point favorites over the Raiders, but they were just 1-6 against the spread in their final seven home games last season, including playoffs.
Their problem this week is that neither Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo nor Sam Howell are coming to town. Tagovailoa will arrive as the current betting favorite to be this season’s MVP.
Last year, he played well against the Bills before leaving with a scary concussion in a Week 3 home win, and he played more than credibly enough in the second meeting on the road to help his team to an eight-point lead in a game Buffalo ultimately won by a field goal.
Tagovailoa is playing like the best quarterback in the league behind an offensive line that seems suited to handle the Miller-less Buffalo front. Through three weeks, Miami’s quarterback leads the NFL in yards per attempt, adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, quarterback rating and QBR, among others.
He and Tyreek Hill look like the game’s most potent passer-receiver duo, and with Raheem Mostert rushing for nearly six yards an attempt and six touchdowns in three games, the Dolphins have put together a brilliantly designed running scheme to compliment their explosiveness in the passing game.
The Bills will be the best opponent the Dolphins have played to date, and bettors should consider how Buffalo’s pass rush has come alive, as well as Allen’s potential when he doesn’t give away the ball. However, it’s hard not to take the points with an offense that at times has looked unstoppable.
Over/Under
The Over/Underfor this game is 53.5. It is by far the highest total so far this season, and it oddly might seem too low.
A long-dormant ground game has returned for the Bills. They ran for 183 yards against the Raiders two weeks ago, then had 168 on the ground versus Washington, and James Cook is averaging more than six yards per carry. Fears of the Bills again having a one-dimensional offense have at least been temporarily eased.
The Bills have achieved a sense of balance, both with how they can play on offense and in the fact they’re the only team to be ranked in the top of both offense and defense DVOA.
This game has two offenses that have found different ways to be productive and are combining to average over 73 points per game.
Jaylen Waddle is expected to be back for the Dolphins, and we’re still weeks away from cold Buffalo weather affecting offenses. Even if bettors should look at Miami’s value in relation to both the moneyline and the spread, its defense is still too suspect to take the bait on the Under, even if the total is this high.
Player Prop
A game of this magnitude has no shortage of enticing player props, but one that stands out is James Cook at Over 55.5 rushing yards at -140 odds.
Cook has exceeded this number in two of Buffalo’s three games, rushing for 98 yards against Washington last week and 123 yards against the Raiders in Week 2. He’s surpassed his rushing-yards-average prop by more than 40 per game.
If the Bills try to keep Tua and crew off the field, they could lean more heavily than usual on their running game against a Dolphins defense that ranks just 25th in opposing yards per carry and allows 130 yards on the ground per game.
Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images
