UCLA vs. USC Prediction, Pick & Odds: Will Trojans’ Injury Concerns Keep Scoring Down?

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27 January 2024

UCLA vs. USC Prediction, Pick & Odds: Will Trojans’ Injury Concerns Keep Scoring Down?

Two underperforming Pac-12 teams meet Saturday as the USC Trojans host the UCLA Bruins, and we offer our best UCLA vs. USC prediction based on the best college basketball odds.

Having suffered losses in their recent games, both UCLA (8-11, 3-5 Pac-12) and USC (8-11, 2-6 Pac-12) have had approximately a week of downtime for reflection. Last time out, the Bruins held a commanding lead over the current No. 9 Arizona, with a first-half advantage of up to 19 points on the road last Saturday. However, the Wildcats outscored them 64-39 in the remainder of the game, ultimately securing a six-point victory.

On the other hand, USC is in the midst of a four-game losing streak. They let slip an eight-point first-half lead against Arizona State in their recent game. The Sun Devils concluded the half with a 20-5 run and maintained their momentum, securing an 82-67 home victory.

The Bruins and Trojans have split their last six head-to-head matchups, with the home team winning each of the previous four.

To accompany our College Basketball player props & best bets, here is our best UCLA vs. USC prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UCLA vs. USC prediction

Under 136.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars, bet365

It is difficult to make anything in this matchup worthy of more than a three-star play, as the uncertainty of the status of Trojans' leading scorer, Boogie Ellis, looms large. Ellis has been named AAC Sixth Man of the Year and an All-Pac-12 player in the last two seasons and is averaging 18.7 points per game on .461/.455/.741 shooting splits this year. However, he has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, and coupled with the indefinite loss of another lead guard, Isaiah Collier (right-hand surgery), the Trojans have gone 0-3 and not scored more than 67 points or exceeded 0.92 points per possession in that span.

Ellis was questionable to suit up last week at Arizona State, and having another week off likely puts him on the right side of questionable for this game. However, he would likely be less than 100% and nowhere near the explosive player who torched the Bruins for 31 points on 9-of-17 shooting in their home meeting last year.

Ellis’ absence put a lot of pressure on Bronny James and Oziyah Sellers to pick up the slack in the backcourt, and Sellers’ offensive rating (per KenPom) and points per game decreased in each of the last three games. Meanwhile, James has averaged just four points per game in the previous five games and is much more of a role player than perhaps he was hyped up to be.

USC has allowed opponents to score 70-plus points in 14 of 19 games, but the defense should be the least of the Trojans’ concerns when facing a UCLA offense that ranks 314th or worse in 2-point shooting (46.1%), 3-point shooting (29.9%), and effective field goal percentage. Those numbers have not improved much in league play, as UCLA is dead-last among all Pac-12 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and 3-point shooting (30.7%) in league games.

Thus, while USC is 1-9 when getting out-shot by its opponent in terms of field goal percentage, we do not have enough confidence in UCLA’s offense to suggest it will out-shoot the Trojans. The safer play is the Under, which would become a more confident four-star play if Ellis is again unable to play.

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UCLA vs. USC best odds

Caesars, bet365 (-110)

Under backers have their choice of Caesars or bet365 to get the best value from our best sportsbooks, as they offer a total a full point higher than those sportsbooks on the low end of the market at 135.5.

UCLA has been a streaky team from an O/U perspective, entering this matchup with the Over cashing in two straight, preceded by five consecutive Unders and three straight Overs before that.

UCLA vs. USC odds

It is likely that sharps are backing the Under at our best sports betting apps based on the initial line movement just hours after the opening lines were released. Caesars initially experienced the biggest decline, plummeting from an O/U of 138 to 136 within 40 minutes of the line being posted, but it has since rebounded to 136.5. DraftKings saw its total drop from 137.5 to 136, and BetRivers experienced a similar decline from 137.5 to 135.5.

Our best sports betting sites are in unison with the point spread of USC -2.5, though FanDuel is the only one of our top betting sites that charges more than the standard -110 juice (-115) to lay the points with the favorites. Any line movement to this point has gone in favor of the Bruins, as Caesars and FanDuel topped out at USC -3 and -3.5, respectively. DraftKings was the only sportsbook to ever offer a number higher than those, instilling the Trojans as a 5.5-point favorite early Friday afternoon. UCLA is 8-10-1 ATS, while USC has covered the spread in nine of 19 games and is 4-4 ATS in eight Pac-12 games.