UEFA Champions League predictions: two futures we’re backing before the quarterfinals
As we look ahead to the start of the quarterfinals, we’re set to provide a pair of UEFA Champions League predictions.
On one side of the draw, we have Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich and Chelsea vs. Real Madrid with the winners meeting in the semifinals. On the other side, bettors have Napoli vs. AC Milan and Inter vs. Benfica with one of those four scheduled to reach the final.
How should players target the futures market? Below are my two best futures bets for the remainder of the competition — odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Although daring to bet on the favorite from the tougher side of the draw, City are far and away the best side of the four.
In the Premier League — the hardest domestic league by UEFA coefficients - City has posted a +1.12 non-penalty expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes, by far the best in the league, including league-leaders Arsenal.
Although they face a Bayern side with a better nPxGOT differential in a lesser league, City also owns the best expected goal differential per 90 in the Champions League at +1.8, 0.73 better than Bayern, according to fbref.com.
From there, they either get Real Madrid in a revenge spot for last season or a Chelsea team that has a negative nPxGOT in the Premier League this season.
Add in that you’re not really taking the worst of the number — City closed at +250 to win the tournament on Aug. 24th — and I rate this price a gift. Back Pep Guardiola and company to finally win the Champions League at +200 or better.
Unknown to a lot of casual soccer fans, Benfica has absolutely deserved to reach this stage and has a real shot at the final.
As it stands, Benfica owns the fourth-best expected goal differential in the Champions League, per fbref.com. Plus, although it comes in the seventh-hardest domestic league, the Portuguese outfit has a +2.01 nPxGOT differential per 90 minutes.
The next best mark in that league? Porto at a +1.13 nPxGOT differential per 90 minutes.
In the quarters, Benfica gets an Inter side that is lucky to be in this round. Against that Porto side in the round of 16, the Italian side posted a -2.59 xGOT differential despite recording a +1 goal differential. Plus, their offense created only 0.72 xGOT when playing 11v11 vs. Porto.
From there, the presumed opponent for Benfica in the semis would be Napoli, who has yet to face a defense on Benfica’s level. But, in the event Milan pulls the upset, I would have Benfica rated a favorite to get through.
Stranger things have happened, but Benfica reaches the final more times than these implied odds suggest. Take a shot at 10-1 or better.
