UFC 284: Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett Picks and Predictions

Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett are both looking to snag an interim title in what might be a unique opportunity for each to seize. See why our UFC 284 picks see a close fight that will give bettors and viewers alike their money's worth.

Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett is scheduled for five rounds in the featherweight division and is the co-main event of UFC 284 from Perth, Australia.

The interim title is on the line, as Rodriguez and Emmett hope to make the best of an unlikely title shot — and these certified bangers are primed to steal the show.

UFC odds suggest this will be a close one as Rodriguez is a narrow -165 favorite. Emmett may not get another chance at a title, so he’ll have to win as a +140 underdog.

Here are our free betting picks for Rodriguez vs. Emmett at UFC 284 in Perth.

Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett fight odds

Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett method of victory odds

Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett betting preview

This clash between two top featherweights is one of style vs. substance. Rodriguez is a flashier fighter with a unique style and is not afraid to get messy, whereas Emmett is fundamentally sound and doesn’t make too many mistakes. It’s now or never for these two, and a shot against Alexander Volkanovski is at stake.

Rodriguez couldn't overcome Max Holloway in their vicious brawl, so he showed his class in his next fight handing Brian Ortega a loss in his biggest win to date. Activity has been an issue for Rodriguez for the last few years, but he’s scored wins over Chang Sung Jung and Jeremy Stephens. He is a creative striker with some unorthodox technique that keeps plenty of physical and mental pressure on his opponents.

The former Ultimate Fighter tournament winner is seven years younger and five inches taller than Emmett. He lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and can keep the fight standing as he stuffs 62% of takedown attempts. Eight of his 14 wins came inside the distance and he has an average fight time of 13:30 minutes.

Emmett has slowly climbed his way up the rankings, earning a spot he’s chased since joining the UFC in 2016. A 2020 win over Shane Burgos proved costly as he tore his ACL, sidelining him until 2021 when he beat a declining Dan Ige. In his last fight, Emmett picked up a somewhat controversial decision over Calvin Kattar to earn his shot for the interim title.

“CC0” needs to dig his heels in for a tough fight. He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute at 37% accuracy and scores 1.04 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40% accuracy. 10 of his 18 wins have been decisions, and Emmett has a great chin, only being stopped by illegal blows from Stephens in 2018.

Emmett doesn’t make many mistakes, but his striking accuracy and tendency to take punishment in exchanges are troubling. At the same time, Rodriguez’s high-voltage style might run into trouble against a fighter with a sharp jab and educated counters. 

Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett tale of the tape

Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Rodriguez ML

While Emmett has a longer winning streak, it wasn't against stern opposition. The Kattar fight showed his ceiling, and Rodriguez is at Kattar’s level if not slightly better. Granted, Rodriguez got worked over by Holloway and wouldn’t fare well against Volkanovski, but he’s the better fighter here unless proven otherwise.

When it comes to Emmett’s offense, he takes one to earn one with his strikes and is very formulaic. That doesn't help him against an active fighter who will have advantages in speed and height. For Emmett to overcome the physical deficiencies and stymie Rodriguez’s output, he’ll have to get creative, and that’s not in his fighter DNA.

We’re going to go with Rodriguez to show his class here, handing Emmett his first loss in nearly five years and claiming an interim title in the process.

Prediction: Rodriguez moneyline (-165 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Fight goes the distance

Rodriguez and Emmett are notoriously hard to finish. They are well-conditioned and often go the distance, winning with tact rather than grit. Though Rodriguez has more finishes, their fight time is roughly the same at over 13 minutes each.

We’re picking Rodriguez to win at -165, though it could be a close fight. At the same time, picking the fight going the distance is almost a lock, and that’s -165 too! 

Our best bet is that the fight goes the five-round distance.

Pick: Fight will go the distance (-165 at DraftKings)