UFC 292: Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista Picks and Predictions

While Da'Mon Blackshear represents a step up in competition for Mario Bautista, the 29-year-old is coming off a fight just last week. It's one of several reasons why Bautista should come away with another victory to his name.

Mario Bautista takes on Da’Mon Blackshear, who steps in with less than a week to prepare, and their bantamweight clash is a featured undercard attraction at UFC 292 at the TD Arena this weekend in Boston.

Bautista puts his four-fight win streak on the line against the unpredictable Blackshear, who is a major upgrade in opponent class from Cody Garbrandt.

UFC odds favor Bautista at -218, and Blackshear is a +180 underdog. 

Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista fight odds

Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista method of victory odds

Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista betting preview

Mario Bautista was getting featured on the UFC 292 card one way or the other. He’s getting a unique change up because Da’Mon Blackshear is leagues different from Cody Garbrandt. Bautista has been on a run, winning three of his last four fights by submission, with his latest victim being Guido Cannetti in March.

There’s a lot Bautista does well. He’s offensively dynamic, averaging 5.33 significant strikes per minute and scoring 2.91 takedowns per 15 minutes. Four of his six UFC wins have come inside the distance, and he’s shown he’s ready to step up his game based on his recent performances.

Blackshear had his share of publicity thrown his way for scoring only the third Twister submission in UFC history last week against Jose Johnson. A win over Bautista under these circumstances would make him a made man. After dropping his first two UFC fights, he’s won two in a row and starting to find his footing.

The party crasher is taking a step up in class on short notice. He will enjoy advantages in height and reach compared to Bautista and might catch him off guard.

Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista tale of the tape

Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Bautista ML

Bautista has a new assignment, but he’s likely to pass. As great as Blackshear’s submission was, he’s getting a big step up in class with little preparation time against a surging fighter. 

However, Blackshear isn’t without a path to victory. His length and height might make it difficult for Bautista to score takedowns, and he’s been finished twice. There is a window of opportunity for Blackshear to take Bautista by surprise, but he still figures to be outclassed from a skill standpoint.

Where Bautista will find success is exploiting Blackshear’s striking defense. He lands and absorbs 3.68 significant strikes per minute, and Bautista lands at a higher rate than that. 

This could be interesting early on, but I don’t see this any other way aside from Bautista winning.

Prediction: Mario Bautista moneyline (-218 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Bautisa ML

Bautista and Blackshear are going to look to establish a ground game, which should cancel out. That leaves Bautista’s superior striking to carry the fight, and I believe he’ll end up too resourceful for Blackshear to overcome.  

Due to the nature of how late this fight was made, there are no available props for me to weigh in on. In this case, I’ll stick with the moneyline but suggest taking Bautista by points when the odds come out.

Pick: Mario Bautista moneyline (-218 at DraftKings)