UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs Mario Bautista Best Bets

The 2024 UFC fight schedule starts off with a bang this weekend when a UFC Fight Night event in the APEX takes place, sporting a stacked card for a “small” event like this. One of the upcoming UFC fights to tune in for and bet on is this bantamweight bout between Ricky Simon and Mario Bautista. 

Read more for the betting analysis of this bantamweight bout, along with the official Simon vs. Bautista best bets to make this weekend.

Simon vs. Bautista Information

Ricky Simon vs Mario Bautista

Location of the figth: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date and Time: January 13, 2024. 7 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+

Last Fight Record

Simon is looking to bounce back from a 5th-round TKO loss to Yadong Song last April.

Bautista is coming off a decision victory over Da’Mon Blackshear at UFC 292 last August.

Simon vs. Bautista Betting Analysis

Ricky Simon

Simon is an American mixed martial artist with a professional record of 20-4, including 6 wins by TKO/KO and 4 wins by submission. He is currently ranked as the #13 bantamweight contender in the UFC and has won 3 post-fight bonuses in the company. Prior to fighting in the UFC, Simon was the LFA bantamweight champion.

Simon is listed at 5’6” and has a 69” reach while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Inside the octagon, he averages 3.01 significant strikes landed and 3.23 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He actually still has a very good striking defense at 62%, even though he absorbs more than he lands. His strength is in wrestling, averaging 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Mario Bautista

Batista is an American mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 13-2 with 3 TKO/KO wins and 6 submissions. He has won Performance of the Night twice in the UFC. He also is a brown belt in BJJ under the great John Crouch of the MMA Lab in Arizona.

Bautista is listed at 5’9” and has a 69” reach while fighting out of switch stances. In the UFC, he averages an impressive 5.32 significant strikes landed and 4.20 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He adds to his striking prowess with an average of 2.72 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and 1.3 submissions. His 56% takedown defense will be tested heavily this weekend.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.

Simon vs. Bautista Betting Preview

Now that the analytics behind their careers is out of the way, you can’t get Simon vs. Bautista’s best bets without previewing the betting lines and studying a lot of film of both guys.

According to the available UFC odds, Simon is coming in as the -185 betting favorite over the +160 Bautista. This fight is favored to make it the 3-round distance at -150, and the over/under is set at 2.5 rounds.

From a technical standpoint, this fight is going to be awesome to watch. Simon is a strong wrestler with power in his hands and always improves his striking every time he steps foot in the cage. 

Bautista is a dynamic striker and grappler who can take advantage of opponents’ mistakes at a very high level. These two are both in their primes and it will be a battle in the octagon to decide who belongs in the rankings at this point.

Simon is going to be heavily chasing takedowns, most likely. He won’t have fun kickboxing with Bautista in kicking range, so he will need to close the distance as much as possible. Bautista will look to use his feet and catch Simon coming in. If you’re looking to bet on this fight, consider checking out the odds and options available on BetUS.

Simon vs. Bautista Betting Prediction

What a perfect way to kick off the 2024 UFC schedule and win some big bets. This weekend, the Simon vs. Bautista best bet to make is taking Bautista to get his hand raised at +160. 

This is one of the most confident underdog bets to make in MMA with a guy like Bautista looking to prove himself. The MMA Lab has won too much money for bettors recently to bet against Bautista.

His length, quickness, and dynamic athleticism will be too much for the more “stiff” fighter in Simon. Don’t be surprised if Bautista submits Simon on the ground early either. This is arguably the best UFC bet to make this weekend.

• Pick: Bautista to win (+160).

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