UFC 294: Aliskerov vs Alves Odds, Picks & Predictions

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19 October 2023

UFC 294: Aliskerov vs Alves Odds, Picks & Predictions

Ikram Aliskerov almost missed out on UFC 294 when his original opponent, Nassourdine Imavov, was forced to withdraw due to visa issues. With Warlley Alves coming in as a last-second replacement, will this help or hurt the budding star's chances?

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Warlley Alves is a middleweight bout serving as a featured attraction on the UFC 294 undercard from The Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.

The UFC has a prospect they’re looking to feature in Aliskerov, and late substitute Alves hopes to play spoiler to reignite his career with an upset.

UFC odds heavily favor Aliskerov at -625, with Alves a +455 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Aliskerov vs. Alves at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi.

Aliskerov vs Alves fight odds

Aliskerov vs Alves method of victory odds

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Aliskerov vs Alves picks

Fight prediction: Aliskerov ML

Things haven’t been easy for Ikram Aliskerov, who constantly gets his fights canceled or rescheduled. Instead of delaying the middleweight prospect any longer, he’ll remain on the main card at UFC 294 against veteran Warlley Alves, who steps in after Nassourdine Imavov’s visa issues nixed him from the fight.

In many ways, this should be a cinch for Aliskerov. The sambo specialist is going to have significant advantages in size and power, and his submission defense game is strong. Alves is coming up in weight, took a loss in his last fight nine months ago, and has gone 2-3 over his last five.

As good as Alves is on the ground, he’s a welterweight who has been getting mangled by other welterweights. If you don’t have a good ground defense or are susceptible to submissions, then Alves can be troublesome. However, he’s been knocked out and submitted in recent fights, and Alikserov being the bigger fighter with a strong tool kit doesn’t bode well for the veteran.

Even if it was Imavov, I would have been inclined to pick Aliskerov straight up. Against an opponent coming in to save a spot on the card? I’m going with Aliskerov to go over Alves.

Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov moneyline (-625 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Aliskerov by KO/TKO/DQ

Jeremiah Wells knocked Alves out two fights ago, and Randy Brown submitted him not too far prior. The 32-year-old is going to have to contend with a stiff striker possessing size and reach advantages. Alves suckering Aliskerov into a shock submission is a possibility, but there are too many things that have to go wrong for that to happen.

Aliskerov fights at a blistering pace. He’s a swarmer with his strikes and is just as aggressive on the ground. His two UFC fights have lasted less than three minutes, and he’s displayed the kind of arsenal that merits the promotion's investment in him. He’s an action fighter who should deliver in a big way.

Alves won’t last long and might not get out of the first round, so I’ll bet on Aliskerov taking care of business with a stoppage.

Pick: Ikram Aliskerov to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+120 at DraftKings)

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Aliskerov vs Alves betting preview

Combat Sambo specialist Aliskerov (14-1) showed out in his official UFC main roster debut with a first-round knockout of Phil Hawes in May. Though he has fought professionally as a middleweight his entire career, Aliskerov is a massive fighter who has missed weight twice and might not last long in the division. His sole defeat came to Khamzat Chimaev when both fought under Brave FC in 2019.

Alves (15-6) got his spot in the UFC by winning The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil in 2014 as a middleweight. He dropped down to welterweight where he has competed since. The Brazilian kickboxer is a capable striker and submission specialist, scoring wins over Colby Convington, Sergio Moraes, and Mounir Lazzez. Since the Covington win in 2015, he’s gone 4-6.

The size advantage between the two might not be as pronounced as it seems, but Alves is coming off a split-decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in his last fight. Aliskerov has a four-inch reach advantage and is a hunter, landing 6.25 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy. Both fighters hover around a 71% finishing rate, though Alves has been knocked out and finished three times, including two in his last three losses.