UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Prediction, Odds & Picks

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17 October 2023

UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Prediction, Odds & Picks

The biggest MMA stars of today are heading to Abu Dhabi this weekend for UFC 294. Although the pay-per-view card is littered with huge matchups, none are bigger than the UFC Lightweight Championship rematch between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski.

The two superstar fighters first collided with the lightweight gold on the line at UFC 284 back in February. They needed the full five rounds to decide a victor, resulting in Makhachev walking out with a unanimous decision win over Volkanovski.

But will history repeat itself on Saturday afternoon?

Let’s dive into this Makhachev vs. Volkanovski betting preview, as we look at the latest UFC 294 odds, betting trends, and the best bets you can make this week.

UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Odds

Moneyline

Islam Makhachev (-250)
Alexander Volkanovski (+210)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (-130)
Under 4.5 Rounds (+100)

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Now, back to Saturday’s main event…

UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Fight Preview

BetOnline isn’t expecting a title change at UFC 294. The sportsbook is currently favoring Makhachev to win at -250 moneyline odds, carrying an implied win probability of 71.4%. For reference, he had an 80.4% chance of beating Volkanovski in their first fight.

Makhachev heads to Abu Dhabi riding a 12-fight winning streak — tied for the longest of his career. He’s finished seven opponents over the course of this run, winning five times by submission and another two via KO/TKO.

Having said that, the 31-year-old Russian hasn’t fought since his last encounter with Volkanovski. Makhachev was the better man that night, showing superior striking accuracy (60% vs. 48%) while landing four takedowns and controlling the majority of the fight (7:37 vs. 2:55).

At the same time, it isn’t as if Volkanovski is any ordinary challenger. He’s the reigning UFC Featherweight Champion, after all.

On top of that, the talented Australian has only tasted defeat twice in his career, as well as going 23-1 in his last 24 fights. He boasts a finish rate of 61.5% and holds a 10-1 record when his fights go the distance with that sole loss coming against Makhachev.

Volkanovski holds the offensive striking advantage, landing 6.25 significant strikes per minute to Makhachev’s 2.35. At the same time, the champion holds a distinct defensive advantage, absorbing two fewer significant strikes per minute with a better defense rate (61% vs. 58%).

The UFC 294 main event is shaping up to be another classic. Even though Makhachev holds most of the advantages, there are no guarantees in the MMA world.

UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Betting Trends and Markets

While the moneyline helps indicate who is more likely to win at UFC 294, it doesn’t indicate how the fight will go. Fortunately, BetOnline has a variety of Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 betting markets to shed even more light on Saturday’s headlining act.

One thing that I found intriguing is that while BetOnline is favoring that this fight won’t go the distance (-130), the Over on the 4.5-round total is favored at -130 odds.

Volkanovski isn’t a stranger to lengthy fights with nine of his last 13 outings going the distance. While only 36.0% of Makhachev’s career fights went the distance, he was taken to the limit the last time he faced Volkanovski.

On top of that, Makhachev is most likely to win this fight by points at +185 odds. He’s yet to lose a fight that’s gone the distance, which includes recording Volkanovski’s only decision loss back in February.

However, if Volkanovski is to pull off the upset, his top victory method is to win by KO/TKO (+375). After all, he does hold 13 knockout victories to his name. And while Makhachev is a tough customer, he was knocked out by Adriano Martins at UFC 192.

Even then, Makhachev is favored to win if this fight is decided inside the distance at +150 odds. If that’s the case, his likeliest method of victory is to win by first-round KO/TKO (+1000) — something he’s done five times throughout his 13-year career.

UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Prediction Best Bet

In what should be a classic fight, I’m taking Makhachev to retain. He’s the more well-rounded fighter and also boasts the size advantage. While Volkanovski is the better striker, his inferior wrestling skills will make it tough to knock the champion off his game.

As far as the best Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 bet goes, I have two options. For starters, taking the fight to go the distance (+100) is a no-brainer. They went five rounds last time and with BetOnline favoring the Over on the 4.5-round total, I expect another lengthy bout.

With that in mind, it also makes sense to back Makhachev winning via points (+185). Volkanovski hasn’t been finished in more than a decade and with how the last fight went, it’s more likely that the champion retains with some help from the judges.