UFC 296: Emmett vs Mitchell Odds, Picks & Predictions

Covers

14 December 2023

UFC 296: Emmett vs Mitchell Odds, Picks & Predictions

Though Josh Emmett deserves some credit for stepping up to fight Bryce Mitchell on short notice due to an injury to Giga Chikadze, our UFC betting picks are fading the aging featherweight at UFC 296.

We have a battle between two ranked featherweight contenders in the featured prelim of UFC 296 as Josh Emmett takes on Bryce Mitchell on Saturday night from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Mitchell stepped in on short notice just a few weeks ago due to Giga Chikadze’s groin tear during training. UFC odds have Mitchell as a sizable betting favorite at -200, while Emmett returns at +185.

Here are my free betting picks for Emmett vs. Mitchell at UFC 296 in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 16.

Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell fight odds

Emmett vs Mitchell picks

Fight prediction: Mitchell

We must credit Emmett for accepting Mitchell on short notice, considering he is going to be an even tougher opponent than Chikadze and will present a lot of problems. Mitchell is right on the cusp of entering the elite tier of the 145-pound division, something that can be accomplished with a statement win over the current No. 6-ranked contender.

Mitchell’s lone professional loss came via submission to Ilia Topuria, who is now fighting for the strap against Alexander Volkanovski in February. Meanwhile, Mitchell has now beaten the likes of Dan Ige, Edson Barboza, Andre Fili, Charles Rosa, and Matt Sayles.

Those are certainly not a bunch of “lay-up” fights, but a win here will solidify him as a legit title contender. On the other hand, Emmett has gotten his opportunities against the elite of the division and has failed to capitalize.

He’s coming off two straight losses to Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez, and his split decision victory over Calvin Kattar prior to those losses was very controversial. Of the 19 media scores, 14 scored the bout for Kattar.

Prediction: Bryce Mitchell moneyline (-225 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Mitchell by submission

If we are going to back Mitchell in this bout, then I think taking a shot on his submission prop is the bet to make.

Mitchell’s two paths to victories are via submission or decision. He’s never knocked anybody out, while Emmett hasn’t been finished by KO/TKO in nearly six years.

If he can survive Topuria’s violence on the feet for five rounds, then he can surely avoid a knockout from Mitchell in this three-round bout. We know that Mitchell’s gameplan will remain the same as always: shoot takedowns and hunt submissions.

The reason we are catching the submission prop at such a long number in this spot is that Mitchell only has one submission victory under his belt since joining the UFC. However, that doesn’t mean that the black belt in BJJ is not a proficient submission artist, evidenced by the fact that eight of his first nine professional wins came via submission.

We saw Emmett lost to Yair Rodriguez by submission. With all due respect to Rodriguez, if he can make Emmett tap, then so can Mitchell.

Pick: Bryce Mitchell by submission (+325 at Bet99)

Emmett vs Mitchell betting preview

These are two guys who are just trending in opposite directions. I’m not going to knock the Topuria losses against either of them – that guy is a serious problem at 145 pounds.

Stylistically, Emmett is going to get frustrated with Mitchell’s constant pressure and takedown shots, and once this fight inevitably gets to the mat, Emmett is simply not on the same level in the grappling department. Mitchell is also four inches taller and nine years younger than Emmett, two variables that can only help his cause.

Emmett is 0-2 in his past two fights as the betting underdog while Mitchell is 4-0 in his past four as the favorite.

Mitchell has never lost professionally outside of the Topuria fight, while we saw Emmett fall to Rodriguez, and he probably should not have won the Kattar fight.

This is certainly a “prove it” opportunity for Mitchell and will cement whether he belongs in the Top 5 of this division alongside those names since he has not faced that caliber yet outside of Topuria. I do think he is talented enough to be in that conversation.