UFC 296: Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett Odds, Prediction & Betting Tips
'Paddy The Baddy' returns to the Octagon 12 months removed from his contentious victory over Jared Gordon, setting his sights on a career-high victory over lightweight legend Tony Ferguson in one of UFC 296's exciting main card contests.
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Following his emergence through UK MMA promotion Cage Warriors, Paddy Pimblett exploded onto the UFC scene with three finishes in his welcome to the big leagues. However, his world came crashing down this time last year when a spat with one of the sport's most prominent journalists, Ariel Helwani, saw the public's perception shift on the Liverpudlian. He was then forced to double down on an underwhelming performance against the unranked lightweight Jared Gordon, which was met by further criticism from the sport's die-hard fans.
Facing him across the cage is lightweight royalty in Tony Ferguson - presenting an opportunity for Baddy to claim a real statement victory over a significant name in the division. As much as that remains true, it's important to contextualise it with exactly where 'El Cucuy' is at in his career. The 39-year-old is looking to break a six-fight losing skid, drafting in the assistance of retired Navy SEAL David Goggins to head up an intense camp designed on strengthening his mental toughness over his fight conditioning.
Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett Tips
Baddy built hype with two exceptional first-round finishes over Luigi Vendramini and Kazula Vargas in September 2021 and March 2022, but his two subsequent victories have done a lot to derail that generated buzz. The first round of his contest with Jordon Leavitt in London could have been scored either way, with neither fighter producing a high enough output to swing that round in their favour. He was then issued problems by the American before submitting him halfway through the second round. That was then proceeded by an extremely flat three-round outing against 35-year-old Jared Gordon, who's failed to break into the rankings at any point during his six-year stint with the UFC.
The Scouser clearly fought on emotion that night, and given what he's been through over the past 12 months, suffering a devastating injury which required surgery and sitting on the sidelines for a year while receiving substantial online abuse, there's every reason to believe he will carry the weight of that with him into the cage again.
In Tony Ferguson, Pimblett does have a significant opportunity, however, it isn't a give-me fight by any means. El Cucuy may have fallen to six straight defeats, but once you examine those losses more closely, you'll notice that they've all been to ranked opponents - five from the lightweight division in Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler and Bobby Green, plus Nate Diaz, a top-15 fighter at welterweight before his exit from the organisation.
Tony has had success in all of those fights with some of the division's baddest men, and if Pimblett is anything but at his best this weekend, then he could have his UFC 0 confiscated. We're not convinced that Paddy has enough at this moment in time to finish a hardened vet like Ferguson off inside the distance, so we're opting for this one to be turned over to the judges.
Paddy Pimblett To Win By Decision/Technical Decision
That being said, Pimblett does possess enough to have his hand raised after three closely fought rounds with the 39-year-old fan favourite. Dariush and Oliveira were unable to stop the Californian across 15 minutes and those are two fighters at the summit of this stacked weight class.
Paddy's eagerness to stand and trade with lesser opponents has caused him aggravation in the past, and we believe he'll be drawn into a shootout with Tony at several points during this matchup. That will inevitably cause him some problems, but he should be equipped enough to overcome them.
What cannot be underestimated is Ferguson's mental fortitude. Prior to Goggins' involvement, Tony was always an extremely durable, resolute fighter. It's ignored by many how accomplished Ferguson has been in this division prior to those miles on the clock taking their toll on his career. Having worked himself through a training camp far more gruelling than anything Pimblett can launch at him on fight night, we think Ferguson can last the distance with Paddy and have therefore recommended the Englishman to close out 2023 with a decision victory at the T-Mobile Arena.
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