Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett Best Bets and Prediction

One of the most interesting upcoming UFC fights this weekend at UFC 296 is this lightweight matchup between the legendary Tony Ferguson and the rising superstar Paddy Pimblett. Ferguson’s fan base is riding hard for him as he hasn’t gotten his hand raised in years, and Pimblett has turned his heel in the MMA community over the last year–this makes a perfect storm for a hyped MMA bout.

Continue reading for the official Ferguson vs. Pimblett prediction ahead of placing any UFC bets on this weekend’s card.

Ferguson vs. Pimblett Information

Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett

Location of the fight: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date and Time: December 16, 2023. 10 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

Ferguson is coming off his 6th loss in a row at UFC 291 via submission to Bobby Green.

Pimblett is making his return to the octagon after exactly a year ago when he edged out Jared Gordon in December of 2022.

Ferguson vs. Pimblett Betting Analysis

Tony Ferguson

Ferguson is an American mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 25-9, including 12 TKO/KO victories and 8 submissions at the age of 39. Before suffering his current losing drought, Ferguson was on a 12-fight winning streak with 9 of those wins coming by a finish. He has won 11 post-fight bonuses in his UFC career.

“El Cucuy” is a 5’11” freestyle fighter with a 76” reach. Over his long career inside of the octagon, Ferguson still averages 4.98 significant strikes landed and 4.26 absorbed per minute. Even after the punishment over the years, he still has a solid 56% striking defense as well. He will face a test of his 66% takedown defense this weekend.

Paddy Pimblett

Pimblett is an English mixed martial artist with a professional record of 20-3 with 6 TKO/KO wins and 9 submission wins at the age of 28. He is the former Cage Warriors featherweight champion and won the 2022 Breakthrough Fighter of the Year award. Out of his four UFC bouts, he has won a post-fight bonus three times.

Pimblett stands at 5’10” with a 73″ reach, fighting in the orthodox stance. He is a black belt in BJJ and trains in Judo when he travels to the United States. So far in his UFC career, he averages 4.19 significant strikes landed and 3.48 absorbed per minute. He has a 56% takedown defense and averages 0.97 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Updates

The UFC and ESPN have not reported any injuries.

Ferguson vs. Pimblett Betting Preview

To be able to make the best Ferguson vs. Pimblett prediction possible this weekend on the UFC fight schedule, we have to first take a deep dive previewing the betting lines and studying the tape on both of these talented fighters.

Starting with the available UFC odds, Pimblett is coming into this week as the -286 betting favorite over the struggling Ferguson at +226. The odds favor this fight ending inside the distance at -150, and Pimblett is -120 to win inside the distance.

After watching the film on both of these guys, a few things stood out.

First off, Pimblett needs to make massive improvements in his striking since a year ago to be able to compete in the top 15 of the lightweight division. Ferguson is kind of a gatekeeper for that top-15 right now because he has only fought ranked opponents for the last decade it seems like.

Pimblett has literally zero defensive responsibility when he steps into range, below-average punching technique, and not great reactions in the striking exchanges he has been in so far. He has gotten hit cleanly in every UFC fight he’s been in and no matter what anyone says, your chin doesn’t hold up every single time. There’s no science behind what shots can knock you out and what shots can’t.

Ferguson has been tough to watch over recent years because he is past his prime and has only been in the octagon with absolute killers. He started off great against Chandler before the devastating KO, he dropped an elite striker like Justin Gaethje, and he is tough enough to get out of any bad position.

Ferguson vs. Pimblett Betting Prediction

Even though you might have lost money by making UFC picks on Tony Ferguson over the last couple of years, this might be the weekend you earn it all back.

The official Ferguson vs. Pimblett prediction is that Ferguson gets his hand raised and gets back into the winning column. It might sound crazy to pick him after these last 6 losses, but boxing against Pimblett is such a good matchup for the former interim lightweight champ.

Taking Ferguson at underdog odds is the right pick to make. He can very well box Pimblett’s head off over 15 minutes and stuff the below-average takedown entries that Pimblett pulls.

• Pick: Ferguson to win (+235).

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