UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds February 17

UFC 298 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 298 predictions and picks for February 17th with Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuriaheadlining the event in a featherweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.

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Alexander Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria: UFC 298 Main Event

UFC 298 Predictions

Miranda Maverick -205 v Andrea Lee +170

Lee has lost three in a row but it’s been a crazy group of opponents with Araujo, Barber and Natalia Silva. She hasn’t been finished in any of those fights, but she’s a big underdog here because Maverick should be able to take Lee down and win the wrestling and ground game.

Maverick lost to Jasudavicius in June, but an eye poke really took her out of the fight early, and she came back with an armbar win over Cachoeira in July.

I expect Maverick to try and get this to the ground early where she feels most comfortable, and I think she’ll have success there. Maverick by decision is a good play as Lee has good cardio and hasn’t been finished since 2016.

Oban Elliott -290 v Val Woodburn +235

Elliott had a crazy fight on Contender Series where he was almost finished a couple times, but he showed crazy toughness and weathered teh storm and came back to win.

I don’t think he’s an amazing fighter, but he has an amazing gas tank with some power, but his striking defense needs a lot of work.

Val Woodburn got knocked out by Bo Nickal, an elite wrestler, which was a horrible look and while I don’t think he’s good, I don’t think he should be this big of an underdog.

These Contender Series guys aren’t having great performances in the UFC debut so there’s no way I’m laying -290 on Elliott, even though he should win. Stay away from this fight as there are a lot of questions about both guys.

Danny Barlow -180 v Josh Quinlan +155

Again, a Contender Series winner as a big favorite, and I just can’t lay this big of a price on a one dimensional fighter like Barlow.

He’s a striker, and not only is he a one dimensional fighter, he’s a one arm power puncher as he has a strong left, but that’s about it. He’s fought bad competition, and while Quinlan isn’t great he’s had better experience and uses kicks and jabs better than Barlow.

Unfortunately, Quinlan got pieced up in his last fight against Trey Waters on the feet, and if he can’t sure up his striking defense, Barlow will have the opportunity to land the big shot.

Quinlan looked good in his career until he got busted for steroids, and then he looked terrible in his last fight where he was off the juice, but the USDA is out of testing the fighters so who knows if he’s on the juice again. This fight is an absolute stay away from all angles of betting.

Rinya Nakamura -850 v Carlos Vera +540

This line is pretty crazy so there’s no value betting on Nakamura, but I’m surely not betting on Carlos Vera who got dominated by Brad Katona on The Ultimate Fighter.

Nakamura is relentless in attacking takedowns, and he has great cardio so I think he’ll be too much for Vera.

If I was forced to play something on this fight it would be for it to go the distance or Nakamura by decision as Vera showed good defense on the ground against Katona so he’s going to be tough to finish.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima -150 v Justin Tafa +125

Lima is coming of the crazy loss against Derrick Lewis where Lewis surprised him with a flying knee, and the fight was over in 30 seconds so I don’t think we can take much away from that fight.

Tafa is similar to Lewis in that he’s dependent on the KO, but his power is undenaiable. All 7 of Tafa’s wins are by KO, and his 2 losses in the UFC are decision losses.

If Lima stays away from the big punch of Tafa, he’ll be able to land a lot of leg kicks and close the distance and work the clinch, and that’s what I think he does.

The loss to Lewis was the first KO loss of his career, and I don’t see him losing two in a row. I’ll take Lima to get the win.

Amanda Lemos -135 v Mackenzie Dern +115

Mackenzie Dern has lost when she has a step up in competition as she’s beaten Tecia Torres and Angela Hill, but lost to Marina Rodriguez, Xiaonan Yan, and Jessica Andrade in hier last 5 fights, and after getting KO’d against Andrade, I don’t think she can handle power punchers, and Lemos has power.

Lemos just lost to Zhang where Lemos had good power on the feet, but Zhang was able to take her down time and time again.

Can Mackenzie Dern take down Lemos? I’m not so sure. Dern has submissions, but I don’t think she has the strength to muscle Lemos to the ground, and if Lemos lands some power punches on Dern early, it will throw Dern off her game. I like Lemos a lot in this matchup.

Anthony Hernandez -180 v Roman Kopylov +150

This fight hurts me because I love both guys, and I’ve made nice money on both these guys recently, but there can only be one winner here, and I think Hernandez is the pretty clear winner here.

Both guys are great at one thing, Hernandez at wrestling with his insane cardio and speed to get to opponents backs, and Kopylov with his striking to do damage early and then everything setting up for the knockout.

However, Hernandez’s speed will be the difference here and once he gets within range of Kopylov he’ll grapple and wear out Kopylov.

Kopylov is coming off of 4 straight KO victories, but nobody even remotely close to Hernandez’s relentless pressure and talent. Kopylov needs to keep it on the feet, and if he can damage Hernandez early, he might be able to slow him down, but I don’t see Hernandez letting Kopylov tee off on him.

I love Kopylov, but Hernandez is the pick for me in this one. Best case scencario for me would be Hernandez to win, and Kopylov gets a step down in competition in his next fight so we can cash another Kopylov ticket.

Merab Dvalishvili -190 v Henry Cejudo +160

I get why Merab is a big favorite here. Cejudo is coming off a shoulder surgery, and he was out of professional fighting for years before he lost a very close decision to Sterling in May, and I thought Cejudo took the Sterling fight because he matched up good against him.

I’m not sure he matches up good against Merab. Cejudo is one of the best to ever do it with the wrestling, but he’s 37 and Sterling was able to take him down, and if Sterling can take him down, Merab can.

I’m not sure if Merab can keep him down, but I do know that Merab will not stop as his cardio might be the best in the UFC.

Cejudo will need his striking to be on point to slow Dvalishvili down, but Merab just doesn’t stop and I think it will be too much for Cejudo. I like Merab by decision in this one.

Ian Garry -245 v Geoff Neal +195

Ian Garry is one of the most disliked fighters in the UFC, and everyone will be rooting against him (except people that bet on him), and if I knew Garry was 100% focused on the fight I would be all in on him, but I don’t know that he is.

He was made fun of mercilessly for the situation with his wife writing the book about how to land the professional athlete, and he didn’t react well at all to it and the fight against Luque was cancelled in December.

He talked about being scarred to travel so I have to believe we’re either getting an emotionally fragile Ian Garry who will melt under the spotlight or we get the ultra focused Ian Garry who will run through Geoff Neal.

I like Geoff Neal’s game as he got his his health situation taken care of after the Magny fight and he won two in a row before getting submitted to Rakhmonov (no shame in that) so if Garry fights timid, Neal will take advantage.

I think the underdog is the only play here as the craziness from Garry outside of the octagon has red flag written all over it. If Garry fights up to his potential, I’ll look like a dope with this pick, but I’ll roll with Neal here.

Robert Whittaker -220 v Paulo Costa +180

Paulo Costa has the most uninspiring wins to be fighting against someone like Robert Whittaker, and he is desparate to increase his social media following with his UFC stunts.

He took the fight against Chimaev with no intention of fighting, and he pulled out last second and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again.

If he does fight, it’s Whittaker all day as Costa has no cardio after the first couple minutes and he is coming off a win agaisnt an ancient Luke Rockhold who was on top of Whittaker rubbing blood in his face at the end.

Costa isn’t in Whittaker’s league, andI know Whittaker just got knocked out, but he got knocked out to the current Champion in Du Plessis. This is Whittaker all day in my opinion.

UFC 298 Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs Ilia Topuria +105

I have a couple of rules in betting UFC, and one of them is don’t ever bet against Volkanovski outside of fights against Islam Makachev so I won’t do it here.

Volk has faced the best of the best and beaten everyone except Makhachev while fighting up a weight deivison, and honestly the biggest concern for me is him talking about his personal demons when he isn’t in a fight camp, but I hope he’s still at 100% as I think his overall game and stamina will get the best of Topuria.

Volkanovski is a step up from just about anybody, but beating an aging Josh Emmitt and a win over Bryce Mitchell isn’t an impressive resume.

Topuria has great power, but I don’t think he’s ready to take down the GOAT. If I’m being very cautious, I would stay away as Volkanovski’s alcohol problems would be a slight concern, but if Volk is clean coming into this fight I like him to school Topuria.

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