UFC 298 Picks Today: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for UFC 298
UFC 298 is taking place on Saturday from Anaheim, California, and the card is headlined by a featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria. Other notable fights on the card include a bantamweight contender bout between Merab Dvalishvili and former champion Henry Cejudo, along with a middleweight contender bout between Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa. Rising Irish welterweight Ian Garry is also on the card.
DraftKingsis hosting a big UFC 298fantasy MMA tournament that pays out $750,000 in total prizes, including $200,000 to first place. Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $750K UFC 298 Special [$200K to 1st].
Rinya Nakamura ($9,600)
Nakamura has displayed explosive fantasy scoring upside due to a blend of power striking and grappling volume. Nakamura is averaging over four takedowns per 15 minutes, a heavy rate, and has landed more than twice the amount of strikes he has absorbed. Defensively, Nakamura has good movement, which is reflected in his striking metrics. Nakamura has absorbed under two significant strikes per minute while avoiding 70% of opponent significant strike attempts, which are excellent defensive metrics. Offensively, Nakamura is very athletic and powerful, and is capable of recording quick finishes, which was on display in his 33-second KO win over Toshiomi Kazama.
Nakamura enters his fight against Carlos Vera as a titanic favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, carrying a moneyline of about -1200. It is rare to see a fighter this heavily favored on a UFC PPV, and the lopsided odds create a very safe floor for Nakamura in a fight he is widely expected to win. Nakamura’s explosive power and ability to generate grappling volume also create big fantasy scoring upside.
Alexander Volkanovski ($8,200)
Volkanovski is coming off the only knockout loss of his UFC career, but it was a short-notice fight that was up a weight class against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in a matchup that Volkanovski was largely unprepared for. Volkanovski admitted he was barely training before he got the call to take the fight vs. Makhachev on short notice, and said he was drinking frequently. This fight is at featherweight, a division that Volkanovski has dominated in the UFC, and Volkanovski has had ample time to prepare for this matchup against Ilia Topuria.
Volkanovski’s striking is among the best in the sport, and this is supported by elite striking metrics. Volkanovski has the best striking differential in the history of the featherweight division, landing three more significant strikes per minute than his opponents. Volkanovski’s striking output is fueled by excellent volume, landing over six significant strikes per minute, a very high number. Volkanovski also ranks in the top three in the history of the featherweight division in significant strike accuracy, landing 57% of his significant strike attempts.
Volkanovski has also been very durable at featherweight. His aforementioned KO loss to Islam Makhachev was due to a combination of taking the fight on short notice along with fighting a much larger opponent in a higher weight division. Volkanovski’s major weakness is open-side head kicks, largely because he is shorter than most of his opponents at 5’6. Makhachev is a 5’10 southpaw, and his significantly longer legs allowed him to successfully land a power head kick on Volkanovski’s open side that many of his opponents at featherweight haven’t been able to execute. Topuria is only an inch taller than Volkanovski and fights from an orthodox stance, which creates a different attack angle than the one Makhachev had.
Volkanovski has been an excellent fantasy scorer, averaging over 100 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP) per fight, fourth-best on the slate. Volkanovski primarily generates his fantasy scoring through striking volume and wins—Volkanovski has landed over 1500 total significant strikes in the UFC, eighth-most among all active fighters regardless of division. This fight is also five rounds, which potentially creates 10 extra minutes to generate fantasy scoring.
Mackenzie Dern ($7,900)
Dern enters her fight against Amanda Lemos as the underdog, but this is a matchup that Dern could find success in. Lemos does not have strong takedown defense, stopping just 55% of opponent takedown attempts. In Lemos’ most recent fight against Zhang Weili, she was physically manhandled and taken down six times on seven attempts. Lemos’ subpar takedown defense could create an opportunity for Dern to successfully get this fight to the ground, where she can utilize her world-class jiu-jitsu and either finish Lemos on the mat with a submission or win a decision through takedowns and her top game.
Dern is capable of producing strong fantasy scoring when she can execute her game. Dern has recorded the fifth-most control time in the history of the women’s strawweight division, which was best on display in her win over Angela Hill, where Dern recorded 13 minutes of control time over five rounds and posted a massive 153 DKFP.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
