UFC Contender Series Odds: Caio Machado-Kevin Szaflarski prediction
Contender Series Week 1: Cesar Almeida vs. Lucas Fernando continues with a fight in the heavyweight division between Caio Machado and Kevin Szaflarski. Machado has won six straight coming into his second chance to be on the Contender Series meanwhile, Szaflarski is coming off 11 consecutive wins into his shot on the Contender Series. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Machado-Szaflarski prediction and pick.
Caio Machado (7-1-1) is the BFL heavyweight champion and is coming off his third successful title defense with a first-round armbar finish with just a second to spare. He was originally scheduled to fight Paulo Renato Jr. on last year's Contender Series until visa issues derailed his chances there. Now, fast forward one year later he gets another win under his belt and a second chance on the show and he is hoping to make the most of this opportunity when he takes on Poland's Kevin Szaflarski.
Kevin Szaflarski (11-1) is a Polish heavyweight prospect that is riding an 11-fight winning streak coming into the biggest fight of his career on the Contender Series. Of those 11 wins, he has finished 10 of those 11 wins which are split between four knockouts and five submissions making him a very well-rounded prospect as he takes on Caio Machado this Tuesday night on the Contender Series.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Contender Series Week 1 Odds: Caio Machado-Kevin Szaflarski Odds
Caio Machado: +140
Kevin Szaflarski: -166
How to Watch ICaio Machado vs. Kevin Szaflarski
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT
Why Caio Machado Will Win
Caio Machado was supposed to make an appearance on the Contender Series last season against a tougher opponent in Paulo Renato Jr. who lost a close decision to Jamal Pogues. Machado now finally gets his shot on this season in week 1 when he takes on Polish heavyweight Kevin Szaflarski. He has been primarily fighting for the Canadian MMA promotion BFL and was their heavyweight champion before getting the call to compete on the Contender Series.
Machado utilizes his 6'4″ frame to its fullest extent when he is striking at distance but then he does some of his best work inside the clinch and on the mat. He has vicious ground and pound with a sneaky-good submission game. While Szaflarski has two submissions off his back earlier in his professional career, being on the bottom of Machado spells disaster for him. If Machado can land his takedowns without eating punches in the process he can finally get the win he's been longing for.
Why Kevin Szaflarski Will Win
Kevin Szaflarski will be making his first trip to the States to take on Caio Machado for this chance on the Contender Series. Szaflarski has a long frame of 6'6″ with an 81.5″ reach which he utilizes to land heavy strikes at range. When it comes to his best work that is when he's able to get this fight to the mat just like Machado. Szaflarski has some exceptional top control and submission game when he is in control on top.
The only drawback with Szaflarski is that he is a plotting heavyweight that just stalks forward and throws everything into his punches but it's very low volume. With most of Machado's wins coming in the first round, if Szaflarski can make him work just by upping the volume and the grappling he can drag him into deep waters and drown him.
Final Caio Machado-Kevin Szaflarski Prediction & Pick
This should be a relatively low-pace brawl between these two heavyweight prospects. Both fighters are grapplers by nature that normally finish their fights early, so we can get two gassed heavyweights if this fight gets into the later portion of this fight. If this fight does indeed go later it might favor Szaflarski just a bit due to his plodding nature and not using a ton of output he could have better cardio of the two by a small margin if he gets into the deep waters.
If Machado however lands a takedown early in the fight against Szaflarski he certainly can finish the fight there. He has good ground and pound to put a hurting on Szaflarski and the submission game to snatch a limb to get the job done. Ultimately, Szaflarski should be tough to take down and the late this fight goes it should favor him as well, he should be able to keep this fight at distance and just outwork Machado for the majority of the fight for a unanimous decision.
Final Caio Machado-Kevin Szaflarski Prediction & Pick: Kevin Szaflarski (-166)
