UFC Vegas 85 Odds: Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober prediction, pick
We're set for our UFC Vegas 85 Co-Main event taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division as we bring you another one of our betting predictions and picks. Ranked monsters will square off as No. 13 Renato Moicano faces No. 15 Drew Dober with both fighters coming in hot off of wins.
Renato Moicano (17-5-1) has gone 9-5 during his UFC career since 2014. He's always been a strong competitor in the division, but his success has taken a new leap since winning three of his last four fights. He notched back-to-back rear naked chokes against Jai Herbert and Alexander Hernandez and added another in his last win over Brad Riddell – he's looking to fight top competition and state his claim for a title shot. Moicano stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Drew Dober (27-12) has gone 13-8 in his time with the UFC since 2013. He's had an impressive streak over the last few years, going 4-1 in his last five contests with notable wins over Terrance McKinney, Bobby Green, and Ricky Glenn. He dropped a tough loss to Matt Frevola but dished it right back out with a TKO win in his last fight as he tries for back-to-back wins here. Dober stands 5'8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 85 Odds: Renato Moicano-Drew Dober Odds
Renato Moicano: -180
Drew Dober: +154
Over 1.5 rounds: +100
Under 1.5 rounds: -130
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Why Renato MoicanoWill Win
Renato Moicano has been making a name for himself outside of the octagon as an entertaining YouTuber and fun fight personality. While his fan following has grown, so have his performances inside the cage as he's now found three rear-naked chokes in his last four fights. On the ground, Moicano is as dangerous as it gets with his long limbs and ability to sink submissions in a hurry. He's often one step ahead of his opponents in the grappling and he should have a similar advantage here against Dober. While Dober is a skilled jiu jitsu practitioner in his own right, Moicano is looking to prove his submission grappling is levels above the rest and intends on ending this fight with a submission.
To be successful here, Moicano will have to dial-back his aggression and not over-extend against Drew Dober. Dober will have the slight advantage in punching power and we've seen him turn the lights off quickly. He also has an incredibly durable chin, so Moicano will have to wear on him slowly if he chooses to keep the fight standing. Moicano does a great job of striking with volume to set up his takedowns, so expect him to punch for as long as he decides its time to change levels. Dober is a hard guy to bring down, but Moicano's versed background in grappling should give him the edge here.
Why Drew DoberWill Win
Drew Dober has quietly built up a nice resume over the last five fights and he's gotten the win as the betting underdog on a few of those occasions. Dober typically surprises opponents with how hard he hits and despite his charming look, he's capable of withstanding an absolute beating and still coming out on top. Dober should find confidence knowing Moicano isn't a huge knockout threat, unlike a few of his more recent opponents. If Dober decides to walk him down and trade in the center of the octagon, he could see some success landing the more powerful shots. He doesn't typically seek his own takedowns, so expect Dober to try and keep this fight on the feet.
Drew Dober can have success here if he's able to somehow negate the grappling of Moicano. He's at a slight height and reach disadvantage, but he's the more willing striker and won't be afraid to walk through a few punches to find his shots. His takedown defense sits at 56% and he's been submitted four times in his career, so he'll definitely have the grappling of Moicano in the forefront of his defensive plan. Dober stands to win this fight on toughness alone and if he's able to discourage Moicano from shooting, he could have a chance to win this fight.
Final Renato Moicano-Drew DoberPrediction & Pick
Both fighters have differing styles and frames, making this a very intriguing matchup from both sides. Dober is the more durable fighter and stands a better chance of getting the knockout on the feet. His grappling hasn't been great, but he also hasn't had to use a ton of it because of his proficiency on the feet. Renato Moicano, on the other hand, is the much better grappler and should look to get this fight on the ground immediately.
In the end, I think Moicano will be able to display some of his jiu jitsu and put Drew Dober into a few bad spots. Dober certainly has the chance at finding a knockout, but Moicano has shown incredible toughness and a solid chin as well. For our prediction, let's roll with Renato Moicano to get the win.
Final Renato Moicano-Drew Dober Prediction & Pick: Renato Moicano (-180); Wins by Submission (+120)
