UFC Fight Night: Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov Picks and Predictions
A featured bout at Saturday's UFC Fight Night sees a big-time heavyweight clash between Alexander Volkov and Alexndr Romanov. In what should be a superb bout, our betting picks are expecting this one to go long.
Alexander Volkov vs. Alexandr Romanov is scheduled for three rounds in the heavyweight division as a featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night from The Theater in Las Vegas.
Both Alexand(e)rs are top-tier heavyweights, but only one will move on here to pursue greatness and get on the shortlist for a title shot.
UFC odds are close for this one, with Romanov a minor -150 favorite. Division mainstay Volkov is a +130 underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Volkov vs. Romanov at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov fight odds
Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov method of victory odds
Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov betting preview
In a case of falling upward, Romanov finds himself in a position to climb up the heavyweight rankings after suffering a loss. He’ll have to do it against a fighter with twice as many fights as he does, and is a perennial contender not ready to step aside.
As a result, this is the toughest fight to pick on the entire card.
Volkov has been fighting since 2009 and is a former Bellator and M-1 Global champion. He is starting to show some signs of wear but remains a solid contender losing only to fellow top contenders. Recently, he’s scored wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Marcin Tybura, and Alistair Overeem, and lost to Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane.
Going into this fight, “Drago” must rely on his 80-inch reach, size, and power, and avoid any trips to the mat. Volkov’s bread and butter is his striking, where he lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy. Aside from Derrick Lewis stunning him in 2018, Volkov hasn’t lost a UFC fight where he out-landed an opponent in strikes.
Romanov did lose his last fight to Tybura by a decision, though it didn't affect his momentum. The Moldovan has beaten the fighters he is supposed to, like Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa, but suffered a setback in what was supposed to be his sternest test to date. His agility and ground game makes him a heavyweight to watch.
“King Kong” can be an absolute menace if he scores takedowns or maintains control in the clinch. The southpaw works his angles to score 5.18 takedowns per 15 minutes at 62% accuracy, and he averages 1.1 submissions over the same period. Romanov has scored two takedowns or more in each of his fights since joining the UFC in 2020.
Romanov is giving up height, reach, and experience to Volkov. That means relying on scoring takedowns and not spending all his energy trying to bypass Volkov’s reach. Conventional wisdom suggests that the longer the fight goes, the more it will favor the veteran, but this fight is a toss-up.
Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov tale of the tape
Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Volkov ML
Romanov’s fight with Tybura exposed a potential weakness when he emptied his arsenal in the first round. Tybura withstood the punishment and came back to win the next two rounds over a winded and listless Romanov. That means the most likely adjustment Romanov will make for this fight is to pace himself.
If they do fight at a slower pace, then Volkov should be able to potshot Romanov on the outside. He'll then target his body to deplete his energy. This does mean that Romanov can always threaten a takedown throughout the fight, and Volkov is susceptible to a good takedown artist. Once he hits the mat, it could be over.
We’re not sure who wins, but gun to our head? Volkov scores an upset.
Prediction: Volkov moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Over 1.5 rounds
If this fight doesn’t end in the first round, there’s a good chance it goes all the way. With the round total at 1.5, and feeling this could be a fight that gets decided late rather than early, betting on the fight going Over 1.5 rounds might be best.
While we’re shaky with picking a winner, we see a lot of value at -175 for betting the fight goes Over 1.5 rounds.
Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-175 at DraftKings)
