UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Odds & Picks

This Saturday, flyweight champion Alexa Grasso will look to backup one of the biggest upsets in UFC history with a second consecutive victory over former title-holder Valentina Shevchenko.

Grasso, who was roughly a +500 underdog when these two met back on March 4, comes into the rematch with much shorter odds, but remains a slight underdog for Saturday’s bout in Las Vegas.

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Odds

Grasso is +145 to win the rematch at Caesars Sportsbook, with Shevchenko the -170 favorite. In the co-main event, Australian puncher Jack Della Maddalena (-150) is slightly favored over veteran American Kevin Holland (+125). Della Maddalena is riding a 15-fight win streak (five in the UFC) after losing the first two bouts of his MMA career.

Odds as of September 11th at Caesars. Lock in this Caesars promo code to bet on this weekend’s UFC action and check out Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky if you live in KY.

Preliminary action from T-Mobile Arena gets underway at 7:00 pm ET and streams live on ESPN+. The main card is expected to start at 10:00 pm ET and also streams on ESPN+. Canadian viewers can watch all the action on TSN.

Grasso vs Shevchenko: Tale of the Tap

Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Prediction

This rematch is one that Shevchenko will be eager for. It would be overstatement to say the 35-year-old Kyrgyzstani was dominating the first fight, but she was surely ahead on all the cards until she was submitted via face crank late in the fourth round.

Shevchenko landed 87 significant strikes to Grasso’s 59. Grasso, a talented boxer, was landing some punches and winning her share of exchanges. But anytime Shevchenko felt like the standup was getting away from her, she would put Grasso on the mat. Shevchenko was successful on four of her six takedown attempts while Grasso was 0-2.

The fight ended in somewhat perplexing fashion.  Shevchenko went for a wildly unnecessary spinning back kick late in the fourth round. When it missed, Grasso jumped on her back while she was still standing and immediately went for the neck.

Grasso couldn’t quite get her arm under Shevchenko’s chin for the rear-naked choke, but she was still in position for a crank that ultimately made the champ tap.

It was only Grasso’s second career submission victory. It was also the first time Shevchenko had been stopped inside the Octagon (15 UFC fights) and the first time she ever lost as a flyweight. (Her other three losses  came to Amanda Nunes -twice – and Liz Carmouche at bantamweight.)

If Shevchenko approaches the latter stages of the first fight more conservatively, she is still wearing the flyweight belt and her win streak is in double-digits. At age 35, she is likely in the twilight of her career, but bettors can expect to see the same fighter who was controlling the first edition just six months ago.

Look for a motivated and more strategic Shevchenko to take back her belt.