UFC Fight Night: Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo Odds, Picks & Predictions

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12 October 2023

UFC Fight Night: Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo Odds, Picks & Predictions

Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo are trending in opposite directions with the former coming off two straight wins and the latter dropping back-to-back fights. Our betting picks anticipate a continuation. See how we like Maia to get the job done.

Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo is a flyweight bout serving as the co-main event on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard from The Apex in Las Vegas.

Maia looks to score her third win in a row to stay in the mix for big fights, and Araujo is looking to avoid her third straight defeat.

UFC odds have Maia a -162 favorite, and Araujo a +136 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Maia vs. Araujo at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo fight odds

Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo method of victory odds

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Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo picks

Fight prediction: Jennifer Maia ML

From a statistical standpoint, this looks to be a competitive fight. Both Maia (21-9-1) and Araujo (11-5) are come-ahead strikers who use a lot of activity, have decent ground games, and are both very tough. Some subtle differences skew this fight towards Maia, namely her experience and recent form.

Maia is a former title challenger having some success beyond the middle tier of the division. She’s hung around the big dogs but hasn’t scored that premier win. After a loss to Manon Fiorot in May 2022, she’s won her last two by being an absolute striking buzzsaw who is hard to stop if she builds early momentum.

Araujo has similar characteristics, but she mixes in takedowns with her offense. If Araujo can’t establish her grappling, like in her last few fights, she gets left in the dust and doesn’t have the engine like Maia. In her two defeats to Alexa Grasso and Amanda Ribas, she lost the striking battle, and couldn’t work her ground game. As a matter of fact, she’s been outstruck in each of her last four fights.

Maia may not be a true elite, but her striking, conditioning, and experience have kept her head above water late in her career. Araujo, on the other hand, needs too many things to go her way to turn things around.

I’m going with Maia’s work rate and better striking to hand Araujo her third straight loss.

Prediction: Jennifer Maia moneyline (-162 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Maia by decision

Things haven’t been going Araujo’s way lately, and while she might be able to compete, Maia’s focused game plan should allow her to build some early momentum. Araujo doesn’t have the knowledge or grappling prowess to slow her opponents down, and she isn’t a creative enough striker to take over a fight that’s going away from her.

Maia might have fallen short against the division’s top contenders, but she’s winning otherwise. I can’t say the same about Araujo, who is 2-3 over her last five and can’t seem to catch a break. Neither of these two is known for finishing skills, having only one finish each, and all of their wins have gone the distance.

You can play it safe and go Over 2.5 rounds, but I’m confident that Maia has the right style to give Araujo another loss and a reality check. I’m taking Maia by decision as my best bet.

Pick: Jennifer Maia to win by decision (-125 at DraftKings)

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Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo betting preview

Former title challenger Maia is ranked eighth at flyweight and is coming off a decision win over Casey O’Neill at UFC 286. The win was Maia’s second in a row after losing bouts to Fiorot and Katlyn Chookagian in their rematch. Maia unsuccessfully challenged Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight title in 2020.

Araujo entered the UFC in 2019 but has struggled with consistency. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is at her best when she can incorporate her ground game with her striking, but is often overmatched when standing. Losses to Jessica Eye, Chookagian, Grasso, and most recently Amanda Ribas all follow the same pattern of her getting outstruck.

If Maia can start early and maintain a steady work rate, she may be able to trouble Araujo not unlike her previous conquerors. Araujo possesses a four-inch reach advantage over Maia and needs to keep her distance and use jabs and leg kicks as well as appropriate clinches to disrupt Maia’s activity. Both fighters average more than 14 minutes in total fight time.