UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Kape Odds, Picks & Predictions

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11 January 2024

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Kape Odds, Picks & Predictions

Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau get their rematch in UFC Fight Night's co-main bout, and our UFC picks see a measure of revenge — but not without a battle.

Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau meet once again as these elite flyweights take the co-main event spot of the first UFC Fight Night of 2024, which takes place this Saturday, January 13, from The Apex in Las Vegas.

Nicolau edged Kape in their first fight three years ago, and these two rivals are ready to settle the score with possible title implications on the line.

UFC odds favor Kape to get revenge as a -260 favorite, with Nicolau a +210 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Kape vs. Nicolau at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Matheus Nicolau vs Manel Kape fight odds

Nicolau vs Kape picks

Fight prediction: Kape ML

When these two first faced off in 2021, Nicolau controversially won a split decision, though neither fighter was worse for wear. Kape rebounded winning his last four since, whereas Nicolau saw his four-fight streak come to a crushing end courtesy of Brandon Royval shoving his knee into his face last April.

Kape has shown more development since that fight, especially with creative striking and power when he decides to let his hands go. His striking should have been enough to win their first fight, but he wasn’t quite able to create enough distance between himself and Nicolau, and his poor takedown defense ultimately doomed him on the scorecards. If Kape can get past that mental block and fight with intent, as well as avoid takedowns, he should get a win here.

Nicolau isn’t suddenly damaged goods from the Royval loss, but Kape’s improvements since their first fight are hard to ignore. His progress will be put to the test, but he’ll pass it with flying colors this time around. Kape gets a big rematch win.

Prediction: Kape moneyline (-270 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Will go the distance

Key to this fight is Kape letting his hands go and testing Nicolau’s weak chin. All three of Nicolau’s losses have come by stoppage, and Kape was landing the harder shots, though didn’t push the initiative as much as he should have.

With Nicolau coming off a brutal knockout loss, this should give Kape the confidence he needs to charge in and try and blast him out. Nicolau can remain cool under pressure, and his smart utilization of offense could. While Nicolau tries to shoot for takedowns and wrestle for control, Kape needs to fire off in combinations and put Nicolau on the defensive.

While Kape frustratingly fights to the level of his opposition at times, the lessons learned from the first fight should be on display here. The striking won’t be as conservative or telegraphed, his movement will be on point, and he’ll be putting the pressure on Nicolau until he lands a big shot on that bad chin.

Maybe Nicolau can take advantage of Kape’s awful 37% takedown defense as he did before, and being that these two fighter.

Pick: Fight will go the distance (+105 at Bet99)

Nicolau vs Kape betting preview

Kape did not get discouraged following the loss to Nicolau and has won four straight. The southpaw lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy. He’s a volume striker who has great combinations when he lets his hands go but has lacked a sense of offensive urgency in the past. Since the first Nicolau fight, he’s out-struck opponents 242-181 and has dropped his last four opponents at least once per fight.

Nicolau was on the cusp of a flyweight title shot before he was laid out dramatically by Royval. The BJJ specialist is at his best when he can get his opponents on the ground, landing 1.48 takedowns per fight with 45% accuracy, and is a conservative striker as he lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14. All three of Nicolau’s professional losses have been knockouts.

Kape has to stay busy with his hands and not allow Nicolau to get comfortable in the fight. With Nicolau often lagging behind his opponents in striking totals, he’s managed to pull off close wins thanks to some well-placed strikes and takedowns. Both fighters have identical records of 4-1 in their last five fights, with Nicolau scoring a single stoppage and Kape scoring two in that time frame.