UFC 296: Pantoja vs Royval Odds, Picks & Predictions

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14 December 2023

UFC 296: Pantoja vs Royval Odds, Picks & Predictions

The flyweight title is on the line Saturday night when Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja defends his belt against Brandon "Raw Dog" Royval. Pantoja has shown plenty of patience throughout his last bouts, and our UFC picks believe that gives him the edge.

Alexandre Pantoja will make his first defense of the flyweight championship against Brandon Royval in the co-main event of UFC 296 betting this Saturday. This should be a banger between a pair of highly entertaining flyweights who are always all action.

This is a rematch from 2021 when Pantoja submitted Royval in the second round. He's expected to win again with UFC odds installing the current champ as a -190 favorite with Royval coming back at +160. Here are my best free UFC picks and predictions for Pantoja vs. Royval on December 16.

Pantoja vs Royval fight odds

Pantoja vs Royval picks

Fight prediction: Pantoja

Brandon Royval is such a dangerous challenger due to his wild shots and high-end grappling. His chaotic pace and crazy scrambling make him a threat at any moment.

That said, his reckless striking also leaves him open in exchanges and he can be taken down and held on his back by superior wrestlers. Even in several of Royval biggest wins, his opponents had their moments with Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France knocking him down. In contrast, Tim Elliot and Rogerio Bontorin had a total of 12 takedowns.

Alexandre Pantoja is more sound defensively as a striker and has the offensive wrestling and slick transitions to implement his game plan on the ground. One of Pantoja's biggest question marks entering his previous bout was whether he could keep up a high pace for 25 minutes but he proved that he could by outpointing Moreno.

When it comes right down to it, Pantoja has fewer flaws than Royval and he should be able to force the challenger into tough spots on the mat.

Prediction: Pantoja moneyline (-190 at bet99)

Fight best bet: Pantoja by finish

It's pretty rare to see a defending champion be such a modest favorite against an opponent he already finished in recent memory. Pantoja opened at around -250 but money has poured in on the challenger, slimming the line to -190.

Frankly, I haven't seen enough from Royval to justify that line movement. While there's value on simply taking Pantoja on the moneyline, with how aggressive both fighters are it also makes sense to back him to win by stoppage. Eight of Royval's last nine fights have ended inside the distance while five of Pantoja's previous seven wins have been by finish.

Pick: Pantoja by KO or submission (-130 at bet99)

Pantoja vs Royval betting preview

Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja is making his first title defense after beating Brandon Moreno by split decision to earn the belt in July. Pantoja is now on a four-fight winning streak, earning three Performance of the Night Bonuses during that span.

The 33-year-old has compiled a 10-3 record in the octagon and is a very well-rounded fighter who can excel wherever the fight goes. He has plenty of pop in his hands and is also an extremely dangerous grappler with high-end submission skills.

Brandon "Raw Dog" Royval is the former LFA flyweight champ and won his first two fights in the UFC by submitting Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France to earn Fight of the Night bonuses. After that he suffered a pair of setbacks, getting knocked out by Moreno in the first round before being subbed by Pantoja in 2021.

Since that defeat to Pantojo he's reeled off three straight wins, most recently knocking out No. 5 contender Matheus Nicolau in the first round in April. Royval is a high-octane fighter who brings constant pressure, throws unorthodox strikes with vicious power, and constantly hunts for submissions on the mat.