UFC Fight Night predictions, odds: Paul Craig vs. Brendan Allen
Coming off an amazing card at Madison Square Garden, UFC Fight Night heads to the APEX Center for UFC Vegas 82 on Saturday.
The UFC will be off next week for Thanksgiving before rattling off four straight events in December to close the year.
Here are our predictions and picks for UFC Fight Night, which begins at 2 p.m. ET with the prelims on ESPN+.
Paul Craig is getting no respect at middleweight again!
Following an impressive TKO win over as a +200 underdog, he comes in against Brendan Allen as an even bigger dog at +350 on Caesars Sportsbook.
Craig looks to be in wonderful shape since the move from light heavyweight to middleweight. He certainly won’t have the striking advantage against Allen, who has outstruck nearly every opponent he’s faced besides stand-up connoisseurs Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis.
Allen is also an elite grappler himself, submitting every opponent he has finished since Apr. 2021 (five finishes).
Craig and Allen should make for a fascinating fight, and Craig is far from the worst underdog you could bet on at this price.
Craig by TKO at +1150 is a nonsense line, given he can ground and pound any jiu-jitsu stud, as he did to to Andre Muniz in his last fight.
It’s finally time to jump off the Chase Hooper bandwagon.
Once the youngest fighter on the UFC roster, Hooper is now 24 years old.
Hooper has looked improved recently at a higher weight class, moving from featherweight to lightweight.
But his grappling-heavy style and poor striking aren’t a great match against his opponent, Jordan Leavitt.
Leavitt is an unconventional striker throwing kicks and punches at a lower volume.
While Hooper looks improved in his striking, although I’m not convinced it is at Leavitt’s level, and his inability to hold grappling positions is a concern.
It would be surprising to see any finishes here, so fight to go the distance at -120 is the official bet on BetRivers Sportsbook. But don’t be afraid of a Leavitt by decision +420 bet, either.
How often have we seen a UFC debut as a betting favorite against a 4-1 veteran?
That’s what we have this week when Myktybek Orolbai faces Uros Medic in the prelims.
Orolbai just fought three weeks ago in LFA on Oct. 27, securing a TKO win. He is riding a six-fight win streak and only found out that he’s fighting this week, a bizarre set of circumstances where his original opponent, Johnny Parsons, was forced to pull out due to injury.
If Orolbai is the next coming of Shavkat Rakhmonov, so be it.
But his tape, while impressive, shows some holes in his striking.
To be fair, he comes from an elite fight camp, Alpha Male, with head coach Uriah Faber.
Orolbai was a -2300 favorite against Charles Hayward in that LFA fight, in which he looked dominant, although he was nearly KO’d by a flying elbow in the first round, followed by a close heel-hook from Hayward.
On such short notice, I’ll take Medic the underdog at +122 on FanDuel to use his leg kicks and immobilize his opponent. This will be a fun fight.
- Paul Craig ML +350 (Caesars) by KO/TKO +1150 (BetRivers)
- Jordan Leavitt/Chase Hooper goes the distance -120 (FanDuel)
- Uros Medic moneyline +122 (FanDuel)
