UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig odds, predictions: MMA expert reveals surprising fight card picks, best bets

Surging middleweight contender Brendan Allen seeks his sixth consecutive victory Saturday when he faces seasoned veteran Paul Craig in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig. The five-round battle of ranked contenders will anchor the main UFC fight card starting at 5 p.m. ET from the Apex facility in Las Vegas. The No. 10-ranked Allen has emerged as one of the division's rising title contenders behind five straight victories, with four coming by submission. The No. 13-ranked Craig is a dangerous veteran who has won five of his last seven and is looking to crack the top 10 in the middleweight division following a move from the light heavyweight division. 

Allen is a -440 favorite (risk $440 to win $100), while Craig is priced at +310 in the latest UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig odds. In the co-main event, Michael Morales (-280) takes on Jake Matthews (+245) in a matchup of welterweight prospects. Before locking in your picks for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani. 

From breaking down film and following fighters and their camps closely, to tracking sharp action and betting market signals, Vithlani covers the breadth of the MMA betting landscape top to bottom. He also trains amateur boxers and speaks regularly with MMA fighters to understand the sport's nuances. 

In his SportsLine debut for UFC 283 in January, Vithlani swept the main card and has been a consistent winner ever since. At UFC 292, he predicted the upset for underdog Sean O'Malley (+210) against Aljamain Sterling (-250) in the bantamweight championship main event. Anyone who has followed Vithlani already has seen massive returns. 

Now, with UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig on deck, Vithlani has scoured the card from top to bottom and released his top selections. You can only see those picks at SportsLine. 

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig preview 

Allen (22-5) joined the UFC in October 2019 as a coveted prospect following a run in the Legacy Fighting Alliance that saw him become the promotion's middleweight champion. His UFC debut resulted in a submission win over veteran contender Kevin Holland, and Allen's stock soared behind two more impressive victories.

However, his momentum was stalled by a knockout loss to Sean Strickland, who is now the UFC middleweight champion. Allen rebounded with two wins before he was stopped again by veteran power puncher Chris Curtis, leaving some observers to question the UFC ceiling for the ace grappler. 

But the 27-year-old South Carolina native has made strides to silence his critics behind his current winning streak that has seen him submit three consecutive formidable opponents. In his last outing, he choked out veteran Bruno Silva in the first round.

Craig (17-6-1) is similarly a ground-game specialist who has seen plenty of ups and downs in his UFC career but is known for pulling off a handful of massive upsets when most MMA observers gave him little chance. 

For example, the 35-year-old Scottish fighter started his UFC stint with two consecutive losses and, in his third, he was losing handily to prized prospect Magomed Ankalaev. Craig pulled off a submission at 4:59 of the third round to win the fight, likely to save his job and earn a performance bonus. Ankalaev is currently ranked third and has fought for the light heavyweight title. 

Craig went on a six-fight unbeaten streak that saw him close in on a top-five light heavyweight ranking, but consecutive losses to ranked contenders compelled him to move down a weight division. The 35-year-old Scottish fighter made his middleweight debut in July and notched a technical knockout of Andre Muniz in the second round. You can only see who to pick at UFC Fight Night here.

UFC Fight Night predictions 

We'll share one of Vithlani's UFC Fight Night selections here: He is going with Jonathan Pearce (-130) to get his hand raised against Joanderson Brito (+110) in a battle of featherweight prospects.

Pearce (14-4) lost his UFC debut but has since won five straight, showing a polished and versatile skill set while notching three stoppages. The 31-year-old Tennessee native won a decision over veteran Darren Elkins last December. 

Brito (15-3) is similarly a dangerous and explosive prospect who has won three consecutive fights by stoppage. The 27-year-old Brazilian scored a first-round knockout of Westin Wilson in July.

"If he can avoid the devastating knockout punch, I see Pearce wearing on Brito with his grappling and grinding out a victory," Vithlani told SportsLine. See who to back here.

UFC Fight Night picks 

Vithlani also has strong picks for Allen vs. Craig and other bouts on the UFC Fight Night card. He's also backing a fighter who "has shown the ability to stay poised" to emerge with a dominant victory. Those picks are only available at SportsLine. 

UFC Fight Night odds, fight card

See full UFC Fight Night odds, picks, predictions, best bets here.Brendan Allen (-425) vs. Paul Craig (+330)Michael Morales (-280) vs. Jake Matthews (+245)Chase Hooper (-220) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+180)Payton Talbott (-575) vs. Nick Aguirre (+425)Amanda Ribas (-250) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+205)Uros Medic (-245) vs. Johnny Parsons (+200)Jonathan Pearce (-130) vs. Joanderson Brito (+110)Mick Parkin (-345) vs. Caio Machado (+275)Jose Johnson (-190) vs. Chad Anheliger (+160)

Trey Ogden (+120) vs. Nikolas Motta (-140)