UFC Fight Night: Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage Picks and Predictions

Rodolfo Vieira has a key advantage over Cody Brundage ahead of their UFC Fight Night matchup, and our expert betting picks expect him to use it. Read on for full fight analysis.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Cody Brundage is scheduled for three rounds in the middleweight division as a featured undercard attraction on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card from The APEX in Las Vegas.

These ground specialists are hurting from recent defeats, and both are desperate to avoid a losing streak in the crowded middleweight division. 

UFC odds have Viera as a -230 favorite. Brundage is a +195 underdog.

Here are our picks and predictions for Vieira vs. Brundage at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.

Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage fight odds

Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage method of victory odds

Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage betting preview

Rodolfo Vieira has to get this fight done as he always does: on the ground. Lucky for him, he’s going up against an opponent who might be too fascinated with his own wrestling abilities and may give him what he needs to score a victory.

The 33-year-old is 3-2 in his last five, with his most recent appearance being a loss to Chris Curtis. He is an absolute terror when he gets his opponents on the ground, and he has scored 12 takedowns during his stretch. All three of his wins were submissions that came over 1.5 rounds.

Depending on his opponent’s game plan, this fight could be as easy as walking through an open door. Vieira has to worry about Cody Brundage nullifying his takedowns, though Brundage might be willing to test his groundwork and cede his best chance at winning. 

If Brundage hits the ground first, he’s in serious trouble. While there have been some promising signs from the Colorado native, he gets overly excited and invested in his wrestling. This is a far cry from when he was lauded as a KO artist in the regional scene, though it could mean he’s just not seasoned enough as a competitor to know how to switch up his offense.

In his last fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk, he shot for takedowns against a physically stronger fighter, ended up on his back, and got his face mashed up into a gooey mess. He also came out too fast in defeats to Nick Maximov and William Knight. To his credit, he exhibited considerable striking power with a brutal KO win over Tresan Gore. 

It’s important to know that Vieira has poor striking defense, and is routinely out-struck in his fights. Curtis managed to shut down his takedown game, and he looked lost having to rely on his striking. For Brundage to pull this off, he has to go back to what worked for him early in his career, and that’s keeping this a striking battle for the duration of the bout.

Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage tale of the tape

Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Vieira ML

Vieira should get Brundage on the ground, be it by force of will or by Brundage making a bad offensive read. Despite a clear path to victory for the underdog, he’ll likely try to wrestle and win on the ground. Against a solid BJJ practitioner like Vieira, he’s looking for trouble.

Though Brundage has the means, he doesn’t have the mentality to change his style. We’re sticking with the smarter, more skilled mat technician in Vieira to pick up the win. 

Prediction: Vieira ML (-230 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Vieira by submission

When it comes to Vieira, he’ll either win by submission, or lose outright. I don’t think Brundage keeps the fight standing long enough to turn the tide. Once they do scrum on the ground, Vieira establishing dominance and scoring a submission is going to happen.

Brundage’s takedown defense is a respectable 68%, but he hasn’t faced off against a resourceful grappler. He’ll be outclassed on the ground, and Vieira won’t waste time once he gets him there. 

I like Vieira to win this one by submission.

Pick: Vieira by submission (-115 at DraftKings)