UFC Prop Bets: 5 Sneaky Value Picks For UFC 282
In mixed martial arts, anything can happen. And, like fighters who see opportunities to exploit their opponents’ weaknesses, sports bettors should also see windows for value. Sometimes, betting on the outright Sportsbook of a fight isn’t even the most enticing or profitable wager. That’s where our UFC prop bets come in.
Within each UFC card, there are hidden prop gems. Sometimes it’s as simple as the OVER/UNDER on rounds or a fighter winning by submission. Either way, our job is to identify the best UFC prop bets on the market so we can rake in the cash together.
This Saturday is UFC 282, where a light heavyweight title fight between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev will take place. If you’re looking for a traditional main-card preview, check out our UFC 282 odds page or our deeper analyses on Blachowicz vs Ankalaev and the co-main event between Paddy Pimblett and Jared Gordon.
UFC 282 Prop Bets
Sportsbook
Here are our best UFC prop bets for the promotion’s final pay-per-view of the year. We’ll start with some safer, chalkier picks and move into our long shots as the list goes on. All UFC odds come via Sportsbook.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-170)
I love betting on heavyweight fights. I also hate betting on Rozenstruik because he’s so unpredictable. I’ve watched “Bigi Boy” stutter for 24 minutes and 56 seconds, then punch the lips off Alistair Overeem. I’ve seen him dance around Ciryl Gane and lose a lackluster five-round decision. Of course, he’s also been on the receiving end of some early trips to the shadow realm, most notably when Francis Ngannou knocked him into oblivion in 20 seconds at UFC 249.
Francis. Ngannou! God damn. That fight lasted like 15 seconds. #UFC249pic.twitter.com/SlH84zJwZj
— Pat Egan (@Pat_Egan) May 10, 2020
So, why wager on a Rozenstruik fight again? Honestly, it’s just too much fun and I love the pain. Daukaus is also key here. All six of the American’s UFC fights have gone UNDER 1.5 rounds. My gut tells me he’ll get Rozenstruik to dance. From there, cinder blocks will fly and someone will go to sleep.
Paddy Pimblett To Win Inside The Distance (-135)
This prop pick doesn’t require astute analysis, but, hey, we’re still warming up.
Pimblett is a better fighter than Jared Gordon, even with the Englishman’s fast-tracked path through the UFC. The 27-year-old is lean, explosive and capable of punching his way to victory or suffocating fighters with an array of chokes. Pimblett has finished all three of his UFC opponents in UNDER 2.5 rounds and I expect him to do the same on December 10.
For now, we’re keeping this as a more general bet for “Paddy The Baddy” to win inside the distance. If you want to get a little saucy, I also like Pimblett by submission (+175) and, as a dart throw, Pimblett in Round 2 (+400).
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev OVER 3.5 Rounds (EVEN)
This fight hasn’t been easy to handicap. Ankalaev is a chunky favorite, but at the same time, Blachowicz is 10-2 when he opens as the underdog. There’s some weird energy in this main event.
The OVER 3.5 rounds is worth a wager, though. While both fighters have enough strength for knockouts, Ankalaev is best suited for a five-round finesse fight. The Russian is a smart, motivated fighter with cardio and wrestling tools that set him apart from Jan. I think Ankalaev might be a little hesitant in tight vs Blachowicz’s punching power, which will prompt more takedowns, similar to how Glover Teixeira defeated the Pole at UFC 267.
UFC 282 Prop Bets: Value Picks
Let’s look at some steeper plus-money scenarios.
Raul Rosas Jr. By points (+200)
I’m a big fan of Rosas. At 18 years old, he’s the youngest fighter on the roster. Imagine finishing high school while competing on a UFC pay-per-view event? Crazy stuff.
When Raúl Rosas Jr. was 10 years old, Robbie Lawler (then the welterweight Champion) was his idol. He used to stand on front of the TV and pretended to be him.
Raúl will become the youngest fighter in UFC history this Saturday at #UFC282pic.twitter.com/8TMcgwM392
— Carlos Contreras Legaspi (@CCLegaspi) December 7, 2022
Rosas put on a master class in his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. “El Nino Problema” landed three takedowns, spidered all over his opponent for nearly 12 minutes of control time and tossed in a submission attempt, too. Still, he couldn’t finish the fight and won by decision.
Sportsbook
At UFC 282, Rosas is pegged opposite a solid grappler in Jay Perrin, who has recorded four of his 10 MMA wins via submission. I don’t expect Rosas to be in any danger Saturday, but I imagine he’ll have a hard time finishing off a relatively experienced fighter such as Perrin.
There’s value on Rosas by decision at +200.
Bryce Mitchell By Submission (+450)
Sure, “Thug Nasty” by submission isn’t a very creative pick, but with all the attention on Ilia Topuria this week, let’s not forget Mitchell’s claim to fame. The 28-year-old is as good as it gets on the ground, and his jiu-jitsu is often what wins him fights. Mitchell’s last three fights have gone the distance, but this bout vs Topuria, which I think is the best fight on the card, is destined to finish inside the distance.
A bet on Topuria vs Mitchell UNDER 2.5 rounds (EVEN) is a solid bet. If you’re looking for more value, though, take Mitchell by submission. Topuria is a violent fighter who loves to take the fight to his opponents. That energy has resulted in three consecutive finishes UNDER 1.5 rounds.
— Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin) December 7, 2021
Still, “El Matador” is not invincible, despite his undefeated record. He was knocked down hard in his win over Jai Herbert, so I foresee a situation where Topuria knocks Mitchell down on the feet and rushes into the Arkansas native’s guard. From there, a triangle choke or armbar is very possible, making a +450 dart throw worthwhile.
