UFC Vegas 78 Gambling Preview: Will Rafael dos Anjos make it three losses in a row for Vicente Luque?

Ten weeks into its summer run, the UFC isn’t slowing down, with UFC Vegas 78 set to take place this weekend. Headlined by a welterweight matchup between Rafael dos Anjos and Vicente Luque, the rest of the UFC’s offering this week is decidedly underwhelming as all eyes look ahead to UFC 292 next weekend. Still there are some fights going down, so let’s bet on them.

Straight Bets

Rafael dos Anjos, -115

I don’t feel entirely great about placing this bet given that Luque suffered a brain hemorrhage in his loss to Geoff Neal, but he’s cleared to return to action so let’s all hope that nothing bad comes from that incident.

From a fight standpoint, I think this one lines up quite well for “RDA.” Luque is an offensive powerhouse, but RDA is very defensively sound, tough as all get out, and has the style to cause Luque problems. RDA’s constant pressure should stymie some of Luque’s offense and his takedowns and top control game should wear Luque out and win rounds. Normally I would lean towards the dos Anjos by Decision prop at +215, but over five rounds, and coming off a brutal knockout loss, I’m sticking with the straight bet.

Prop Bets

Hakeem Dawodu by Decision, +200

This is purely a value play. In the co-main event, Dawodu faces off with Cub Swanson in Swanson’s return to featherweight after a failed experiment at 135 pounds, and Dawodu is probably going to win. He’s much younger and more physical, and he can likely work at a pace Swanson cannot maintain. The question is how is he going to do it and while Swanson has been knocked out in two of his previous three fights, he’s still a durable fighter in general and, more importantly, Dawodu isn’t a finisher. Five of his six UFC wins have gone to the cards, and given the delta between Dawodu straight up at -230 and Dawodu by Decision at +200, I like the value on the prop bet.

Khalil Rountree by KO/TKO/DQ, -135

This one is not exactly a deep cut. Rountree is a fierce knockout artist with seven of his 11 career wins coming by KO or TKO and he’s facing a man who has lost three in a row, all by knockout, and making his light heavyweight debut. If Chris Daukaus somehow looks rejuvenated in his new weight class, then this could be a foolish bet, but he gets hit an awful lot and Rountree absolutely has the power to shut the lights out.

Parlay of the Week

Vicente Luque/Rafael dos Anjos Over 1.5 Rounds, -400

You can never feel supremely confident in betting overs when the fight is between two guys who have been around the block, but this one feels good enough. Luque has hit this over in 11 of 19 UFC bouts and dos Anjos has hit is in 27 of 33 UFC bouts, including his past 10 in a row.

Cub Swanson/Hakeen Dawodu Over 1.5 Rounds, -245

I’m once again banking heavily on Dawodu being a decision machine. He’s hit over 1.5 rounds in eight straight fights. Swanson on the other hand is four for eight in that stretch, which is probably why the line is this low.

Terrance McKinney/Mike Breeden Under 2.5 Rounds, -700

Terrance McKinney not going to the judges is the most reliable thing in MMA right now. In 19 career fights, “T-Wrecks” has yet to see a scorecard, and he’s only made it out of the first round four times. McKinney is the definition of get-or-get-got.

Parlay these three bets together for +101 odds.

Longshot of the Week

Polyana Viana to Win by Submission in Round 1, +750

I’m not here to tell you Viana is a great fighter, but she is a darn good finisher. Of her 13 career wins, all have come by finish, 11 of those in the first round. Viana’s UFC career has basically been that she either finishes her opponent in the first round or she loses, and going up against Iasmin Lucindo who isn’t the best athlete or grappler, Viana has a real shot to get another one, and at pretty steep odds considering.

Wrap Up

We would have gotten destroyed last week but the incomprehensible Jake Paul by Decision line means we basically broke even. Just terrible reads by me. Hopefully I’ll do better this week but we’re keeping it tight since this card is not great and UFC 292 is on the horizon.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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