UFC Vegas 81 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza: The Value Side of Main Event (Saturday, October 14)

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for an 11-fight card headlined by an exciting featherweight bout between No. 11-ranked UFC contender Sodiq Yusuff and No. 13 Edson Barboza.

Yusuff, a Contender Series alum, is 7-1 under the UFC banner and will make his first appearance in a five-round fight or main event as part of Saturday's card (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+). His past three bouts have all been inside the smaller cage at the Apex.

Barboza, a fan favorite and likely future UFC Hall of Famer, will make his 29th UFC appearance on Saturday and his fourth in a main event or five-round fight, though just one of those bouts saw the championship rounds. He's earned 10 performance bonuses across a 17-11 UFC record but is 0-1 in the UFC Apex.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 81 main event between Sodiq Yusuff and Edson Barboza and utilize those factors to bet on these featherweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:25 p.m. ET.

Tale of the Tape

Barboza, a former lightweight, is the taller (two inches) and longer (four-inch reach advantage) man in this matchup.

He has a 3-3 record since moving down to the 145-pound division in 2020, which is relatively impressive considering fighters typically move up in weight later in their careers and often struggle with speed and durability when moving down a division in their 30s.

He'll use that reach advantage – and his superior kickboxing acumen – to pick away at Yusuff from a distance. Barboza is the better kicker – and more diverse striker – in the matchup, and he has faced plenty of fighters with Yusuff's boxing-oriented skillset and style throughout his career.

Still, Yusuff is the much younger man and the far superior athlete, and the championship rounds should benefit him.

Additionally, Yusuff retains all of the offensive grappling upside in this fight. Barboza has tended to close his guard after takedowns to conserve energy and survive the round in the latter stages of his career.

While Yusuff doesn't wrestle proactively (averages 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, 12% accuracy), he should have a significant grappling advantage if he can get on top of Barboza, and each takedown could mean a full round scored in his favor.

I'm concerned by the durability of both fighters. Barboza has absorbed a ton of damage across more than 60 combined professional kickboxing and MMA bouts, and his cardio, which likely takes a hit cutting to 145, didn't hold up in his main event loss to Giga Chikadze at the Apex.

Yusuff wobbled in both his loss to Arnold Allen and his win over Gabriel Benitez; his chin may crack at some point, too, but he's the one likelier to land hard and clean head strikes in this fight.

Additionally, Yusuff is a much younger man; when there is at least a seven-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger favorite has won 63.8% of the time at average odds closer to 54.6%, nearly 10 percent above expectation.

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The smaller 25-foot-cage – as opposed to the regular 30-foot octagon, which is about 33% larger – also helps Yusuff immensely in this fight. Barboza doesn't have nearly as much space to operate on the outside or retreat to safety as he is typically accustomed, and Yusuff doesn't have to close as much distance if he wants to change levels and look for takedowns.

While Yusuff is primarily looking to box and land head strikes, which could also provide superior optics for the judges as opposed to Barboza's leg and body kicks, he does need to kick with the kicker and attempt to slow Barboza's movement, which could create further openings for head strikes or takedowns.

Barboza has the experience and technique to make this fight highly competitive – if not look like the outright favorite – in an extended striking battle.

However, Yusuff has all the grappling upside and likely more finishing upside, too, which gives him a much bigger chance of looking like a dominant favorite in hindsight; a Barboza victory would likely come by points and on much narrower margins.

Yusuff vs. Barboza Pick

I projected Sodiq Yusuff as a 64.1% favorite (-178 implied odds) in this UFC Vegas 81 main event and would look to .

I expect this bout to end inside the distance around two-thirds of the time (-201 implied odds) and don't see value concerning distance prop or the total, but I lean toward the "over."

However, compared to the prop market, I would weigh more of the finish equity toward Yusuff and more decision equity toward Barboza.