UFC Vegas 84 Odds: Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus prediction, pick
The UFC is finally back after a long break as we're set to bring you our betting predictions and picks for the first fight card of 2024. The Prelims will continue with this next bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division as Afghanistan's Farid Basharat will take on France's Taylor Lapilus in an exciting scrap.
Farid Basharat (11-0) has been able to stay perfect through his Dana White's Contender Series audition and his first two UFC bouts. With seven finishes to his name, he beat a very game Kleydson Rodrigues in his last fight with an impressive arm triangle choke in the very first round. He'll be looking for a similar result in this fight as he looks to remain spotless and continue his run to the top.
Taylor Lapilus (19-3) has gone 4-1 in his time with the UFC since 2015. He took a substantial break from the promotion during 2017-2022 and made his first apperance back during his last fight in 2023, to which he got the victory over Caolan Loughran via unanimous decision. He'll look to continue building upon his momentum as an improved fighter in this one.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 84 Odds: Farid Basharat-Taylor Lapilus Odds
Farid Basharat: -270
Taylor Lapilus: +220
Over 2.5 rounds: -250
Under 2.5 rounds: +190
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Why Farid BasharatWill Win
Farid Basharat is continuing his unbeaten streak and of the two Basharat brothers, he's been able to seen a tiny bit more success over his sibling Javid. Farid is an extremely technical fighter and he's got a very polished game on the feet. His striking is very clean and he throws a number of unique combinations with his hands and kicks as well. His true expertise comes on the ground as he has six wins by submission to his name. He'll have the clear advantage in the grappling here and if he gets his hands on Lapilus, the fight could see a quick finish.
Farid Basharat is at his best when he's using his striking to set up his takedown opportunities. He's very explosive through his double and single-leg attempts and he's got a 53% accuracy through two fights so far. Even more impressive is his takedown defense at 83% and he has a great ability to transition after stuffing takedowns and stealing positions on his opponents' back. Look for Basharat to give Lapilus the respect he deserves on the feet, but he'll eventually look to take this fight to the mat and slowly suffocate Lapilus with his top pressure and ground-and-pound.
Why Taylor LapilusWill Win
Taylor Lapilus will be fighting with a lot to prove as he'll be making his second stint with the UFC after being released in 2016. He fought successfully in other organizations but his true redemption came during his last fight when he made his UFC return after seven years away. While he couldn't get the finish he wanted, he displayed a much more well-rounded game and was able to look clean during the unanimous decision victory. He traditionally fights behind a striking and Muay Thai base, but he's no slouch on the ground and has six of his wins by submission while never getting caught himself. Expect Lapilus to be a much better adversary in the grappling than Farid Basharat may be ready for.
Lapilus will be the rightful underdog here due to his relative inactivity outside of the UFC. However, he's been on this stage before and he's only had time to grow and evolve since. He's constantly fighting with a hungry mentality and he'll have that constant chip on his shoulder as the underdog. He should know how explosive and twitchy of an athlete Basharat is, so Lapilus should look to take his time and let the fight come to him. He'll need to fight his own style and not let Basharat dictate where the fight takes place. He should be able to pose some problems in the striking as long as he can be first in the exchanges.
Final Farid Basharat-Taylor LapilusPrediction & Pick
Both fighters have a similar style heading into this bout and we should see a fairly leveled bout in terms of skill. Farid Basharat may be the cleaner fighter in terms of technicality and he's certainly the more lethal finisher on the ground. Taylor Lapilus is a great kickboxer in his own right and should be able to hold his own in the grappling as neither fighter has ever been submitted.
Overall, I think this fight may come down to preparation and whoever can avoid the bigger damage. Farid Basharat doesn't get hit a ton and if he's continuing along his evolutionary arc, we should see him as a much better fighter this time around. For our prediction, let's roll with Farid Basharat to get the win as the two have an exciting scrap.
Final Farid Basharat-Taylor Lapilus Prediction & Pick: Farid Basharat (-270); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-250)
