Taylor Lapilus vs Muin Gafurov Pick, 9/2/2023 Predictions UFC Paris Odds

Saturday, September 2, 2023

Taylor Lapilus will take on Muin Gafurov at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 2, 2023. The line has Lapilus coming in at -192 while Gafurov is priced at +160.

Taylor "Double Impact" Lapilus will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 18-3-0. The 31-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'6". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 73". Muin "Tajik" Gafurov comes in at 5'7" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 18-5-0. The 27-year-old stretches 68". Regarding significant strikes, Taylor Lapilus is landing 3.77 per min while Muin Gafurov connects on 3.07 significant strikes per min. Lapilus connects on 45% of the significant strikes he tries and Gafurov is connecting on 41%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Double Impact" takes 2.00 significant strikes per min and "Tajik" takes 2.90. Lapilus also defends 61% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Gafurov deflects 47% of the shots thrown his way.

Regarding grappling, Taylor Lapilus is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.58 times per 15 minutes. Lapilus is taking his opponents to the canvas on 40% of his attempts and is defending 81% of all takedowns attempted on him. Gafurov is taking his opponents down on 27% of his takedown tries and stopping 62% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding submission attempts, Lapilus is the more capable fighter by attempting 0.6 subs per 3 rds while Gafurov tries 0.3 subs per 3 rounds.

In his previous bout, Taylor Lapilus faced Leandro Issa and took home the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Issa ended up landing 23 of 68 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Lapilus finished this fight landing 84 of 168 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Issa ended up landing 19 of 61, which gave him a rate of 31%. He ended up landing 6 of 38 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Lapilus ended up landing 43% of his significant strikes by sticking 63 of 146. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 49 of 130 to the head. 84% of the significant strikes landed by Issa and 60% of them landed by Lapilus were thrown at distance.

In the last fight for Muin Gafurov, he fought John Castaneda and walked away with a loss via unanimous decision in round 3. Castaneda ended up connecting on 92% of his significant strikes at distance and Gafurov ended up connecting on 77% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Gafurov connected on 38% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 61 of 157. He ended up connecting on 45 of 135 significant strikes directed at the head. Castaneda ended up landing 40 of 88 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 30 of 73 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go in that contest, Castaneda ended up landing 70 of 121 and Gafurov landed 93 of 204 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Ange Loosa faces off with Rhys McKee. Loosa comes into this fight holding a mark of 9-3-0. The 30-year-old weighs 170 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 74". McKee comes in at 6'2" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 10-4-1. The 27-year-old has an arm span of 78". In terms of takedowns, Ange Loosa takes his opponents to the mat 1.00 times per 15 minutes and Rhys McKee is able to score a takedown 0.70 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Loosa lands 6.24 strikes per minute and lands 44% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Rhys McKee, who tags his opponent on 53% of the strikes that he throws and connects for an average of 6.83 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Kleidison Rodrigues is set to face off with Farid Basharat. Basharat holds a mark of 10-0-0. The 26-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Rodrigues measures in at 5'5" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 8-2-0. The 27-year-old reaches 67". In terms of grappling, Farid Basharat is able to thwart 83% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown tries on 60% of the times he tries. Rodrigues is taking his opponents to the mat on 25% of the attempts he tries and thwarts 66% of all takedown attempts. In the matter of striking, Basharat takes 2.43 strikes per min and he is dealing 5.80 strikes per min. Rodrigues, in contrast, absorbs 3.00 strikes/minute and dishes out 6.00 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Muin Gafurov (+160)

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