UFC Vegas 85 Gambling Preview: Can Roman Dolidze upset Nassourdine Imavov?

Let’s be honest, UFC Vegas 85 is not a particularly compelling fight card. Going down this Saturday and headlined by a middleweight matchup between Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov, this card is indicative of most APEX cards at this point, even if the co-main event between Renato Moicano and Drew Dober is awesome. Still, there are 13 fights this weekend, and what better way to spice up the interest than with a little monetary incentive?

Straight Bets

Drew Dober, +154

Everyone loves Renato Moicano, and if he can simply take Dober down over and over again, then sure, he’ll win. I’m just not sure that’s happening. Dober isn’t the best wrestler but he’s decent enough, and more importantly, Moicano can get a little too loose on the feet, hanging around in the pocket like a bad quarterback. If that happens, Dober can crack him, and with Moicano’s long layoff before this, I think there’s a good shot of that happening.

Julija Stoliarenko, -148

Laying money on Stoliarenko at minus odds is perhaps not the wisest choice in the world, but Luana Carolina is not very good and Stoliarenko looked dynamite in her flyweight debut. I think there’s a good chance that this weight class will treat her far better, and her grappling should be more than enough to give Carolina issues.

Marquel Mederos, -130

Mederos is one of the crop of contenders coming off the latest Contender Seriesthat I deemed as a legitimately talented prospect — the sort of guy who could not just stick around, but make real noise in a weight class, with the right breaks. As such, I’m betting on him on principle, even though Landon Quiñones is a tough out for your UFC debut.

Prop Bets

Nassourdine Imavov To Win By Decision, +240

Imavov and Dolidze are to very evenly matched fighters who are both quite durable. The big thing separating the two of them is volume, where Imavov lands at a much higher rate than Dolidze. In a fight like this, that can be all the difference. Betting on Decision props in five-round fights is always a bit sweaty, but it’s worth it in this case as Dolidze is too tough to get finished, but Imavov will steadily pull away with more output.

Molly McCann To Win By Decision, -105

I truly don’t understand this line. McCann straight up is -258, and the lines for KO or Submission finish are +400 and +700 respectively. Over half of McCann’s wins are by decision, including one over Diana Belbita back in 2019! I don’t understand what I’m missing and why this line is so close to even money. But of course, that means it’s going to be a loser. After all, Las Vegas wasn’t built my idiots.

Parlay of the Week

Randy Brown -279 + Natalia Silva -355

These are the two biggest betting favorites on the card for a reason: They’re both going to win. Don’t get me wrong, both have real opposition in Muslim Salikhov and Viviane Araujo respectively, but both also have clear advantages in the fight.

Brown is gigantic compared to Salikhov, and while he might not be quite as tricky on the feet, he has more power and more volume. Silva, meanwhile, doesn’t have Brown’s physical advantages but she’s a better athlete and better fighter all around than Araujo, and should be able to piece her up on the feet for 15 full minutes.

Parlay these two bets together for -164 odds.

Long Shot of the Week

Molly McCann To Win By KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3, +2000

Pay no attention to the McCann by Decision bet above this one (I typed, sheepishly). After hitting three Long Shots in 2022, we hit none in 2023. That’s a bummer and so I’m turning to the old gods for help. McCann was the first Long Shot we ever hit, her third-round knockout of Luana Carolina at UFC London, and so we’re going back to the well to see if there’s still some magic left in it.

Wrap Up

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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